Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT): 2025-10-04

• USUALUSDT traded in a bearish consolidation pattern, dipping to 0.0521 and testing key support levels.
• High volume spikes were observed during sharp selloffs in the early morning, indicating bear pressure.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions, but price failed to retrace, hinting at fragile bullish sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion, indicating rising volatility amid unclear directional bias.
• Fibonacci retracements highlighted 0.0536 and 0.0553 as key psychological levels for potential reversals.

24-Hour Price Action and Trading Volume

Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0553 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0565, and hit a low of 0.0521 before closing at 0.0523 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The pair experienced a total 24-hour volume of 73,431,437.7 and a notional turnover of 4,244,599.58. The price action revealed a bearish consolidation with intermittent buying pressure in the late hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bearish continuation pattern, including a morning breakdown to 0.0536 and a late-night breakdown to 0.0523. A series of lower highs and lower lows formed a descending triangle, with key support levels at 0.0536 and 0.0521. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 02:15 ET, while a potential bullish reversal failed to form at 06:30 ET.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both sloped downward, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages were both above the current price, suggesting a deeper bearish bias. The price remains below the 100-day MA as well, adding to the bearish context.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines remained in negative territory for most of the 24-hour window, with a bearish crossover at 06:15 ET. However, a brief histogram expansion near 0.0525 suggested potential short-covering or accumulation. The RSI dipped into oversold territory at 0.0524, but the price failed to close above 0.0530, indicating a lack of conviction in the recovery.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands displayed a moderate expansion after a period of consolidation, reflecting rising volatility. The price closed near the lower band, indicating a bearish bias, but a retest of the upper band around 0.0564 earlier in the day highlighted the struggle between bullish and bearish forces.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff between 02:00 and 03:30 ET, reaching a peak of over 920,328.1, coinciding with a sharp drop from 0.0544 to 0.0528. Turnover also spiked during this window, confirming bearish sentiment. However, in the final hours, volume declined significantly, suggesting a potential exhaustion of the bearish move. A divergence between volume and price movement near 06:00 ET hinted at a potential short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels for the recent 0.0564–0.0521 swing identified 0.0536 (38.2%) and 0.0546 (61.8%) as key levels. The price tested these levels in the early morning but failed to find support, suggesting bearish continuation. On the daily timeframe, a key 0.0553 retracement level was tested twice without a strong bounce, indicating weakening bullish conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could involve using a 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart as a dynamic support/resistance level, combined with RSI below 30 as an entry signal for short positions. Stops could be placed above the 50-period EMA, and targets aligned with Fibonacci levels. This approach would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum while avoiding false breakouts by incorporating volume confirmation.