Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) – 2025-10-03

• Price for USUALUSDT rose from 0.053 to 0.0552, with strong bullish momentum late in the session.
• RSI peaked near overbought territory, suggesting potential consolidation.
• Volume surged during the late New York session, confirming key breakouts.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 0.053–0.0542 range, hinting at short-term strength.
• Volatility expanded during the late trading hours, with price staying near the upper Bollinger Band.

The 24-hour candle for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.053 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0544 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.0559 and a low of 0.053. Total volume traded was 16,188,573.8, with a total turnover of 852.79 USD. Price action was bullish throughout the session, with a notable rally from 0.0542 to 0.0559 during the late trading hours, supported by rising volume and narrowing consolidation patterns earlier.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 0.053–0.0542 between 19:15 and 19:30 ET, confirming a potential reversal after earlier bearish consolidation. A key resistance appeared at 0.0556–0.0558, where price met stiff selling pressure twice before bouncing back. A support level at 0.0545 held for several hours, reinforcing its significance. A doji at 0.0546–0.0547 at 04:15 ET signaled indecision, followed by a continuation of the bullish trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, confirming a short-term bullish trend. The 50-period MA was trading near 0.0543–0.0545, with price above it for much of the session. On the daily chart, the 100-period MA and 200-period MA were not yet visible in the current 24-hour data, but the 50-period MA appeared to support the current price range.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a positive divergence in the late hours, with both the line and signal line rising. The RSI reached a high of 69.3 near the session close, indicating overbought conditions and a potential pause or pullback in the near term. The RSI stayed above 50 for the majority of the session, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. Momentum appears to be moderating, suggesting a possible sideways consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the late trading hours, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a contraction seen earlier in the session. Price traded near the upper band for several hours, confirming bullish pressure. A contraction seen between 03:00 and 04:00 ET may have acted as a prelude to the breakout later in the session. The current middle band is at approximately 0.0547, with the lower band near 0.0541–0.0543.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 21:15 to 21:30 ET period and again at 05:15 ET, coinciding with key breakouts and pullbacks. The total notional turnover reached 852.79 USD, with the highest single 15-minute turnover of 19.75 USD at 05:15 ET. Price and turnover aligned well during key moves, validating the strength of the bullish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 0.053 to 0.0559, key levels at 38.2% (0.0543) and 61.8% (0.0551) were clearly active throughout the session. Price held above the 38.2% level for most of the session, suggesting strength, and the 61.8% level acted as a short-term consolidation zone. These levels will likely be watched for retests in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong price action and volume confirmation at key Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels, a short-term breakout strategy could be backtested. The hypothesis would involve entering long on a close above the 15-minute Bollinger Upper Band and exiting on a close below the 15-minute Bollinger Middle Band, with a stop-loss placed just below the most recent support at 0.0543. This setup aligns with the observed bullish engulfing pattern and the strong volume spikes, offering a data-driven entry with clear risk management.