Market Overview: Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) - 2025-09-25

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• Price action showed a bearish bias as USUALUSDT closed below its 12:00 ET open, amid a 0.97% decline.
• Momentum weakened in late hours, with RSI dipping into oversold territory and MACD diverging from price.
• Volatility expanded in the overnight session, with a 0.0004 swing range and increased volume in the 04:00–07:00 ET window.
• Key support identified at 0.0525–0.0528 after a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed a short-term reversal.
• Turnover peaked at 0.0517 during a sharp selloff, indicating heightened bearish sentiment around 12:30 ET.

Opening Snapshot and 24-Hour Summary

At 12:00 ET–1, USUALUSDT opened at 0.0560 and traded as high as 0.0562 before closing at 0.0526 at 12:00 ET today. The price action over the past 24 hours saw a high of 0.0562 and a low of 0.0512. Total volume reached 38,352,028.5, while notional turnover amounted to $2,087,816. The market displayed a strong bearish bias, with increasing bearish momentum in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Key Levels

The 24-hour candlestick chart for USUALUSDT displayed a broad bearish structure, characterized by a declining trend and increasing volatility in the second half. Key support levels emerged at 0.0525–0.0528, supported by a bearish engulfing pattern observed during the 12:30–13:00 ET window. Resistance levels appear clustered between 0.0532–0.0535, which failed to hold multiple times during the session. A notable doji appeared near 0.0530, signaling indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, USUALUSDT closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA on the daily chart, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend. Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion during the overnight hours, with price frequently touching the lower band, especially around the 04:00–08:00 ET window. This suggests heightened volatility and bearish pressure.

Momentum and Oversold Conditions

The RSI for the 15-minute chart dropped into the 30–35 range, indicating oversold conditions during the morning hours. However, a divergence emerged between RSI and price, with RSI failing to rebound despite a minor price bounce. The MACD crossed into negative territory, with a bearish divergence forming between the histogram and price action. These indicators suggest weakening momentum and potential for further downside before any meaningful rally.

Volume and Divergence

Volume spiked during the selloff at 12:30–13:00 ET, with a large bearish candle forming on heavy turnover. This suggests conviction in the bearish move. However, price and volume diverged during the 09:00–10:00 ET window, where price made a slight recovery but with declining volume. This divergence may point to temporary bearish exhaustion, though the broader trend remains intact.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 24-hour swing from 0.0562 to 0.0512, key levels include 61.8% at 0.0525, 50% at 0.0537, and 38.2% at 0.0547. The price found support near the 61.8% level, validating it as a potential short-term floor. On the 15-minute swings, 0.0528 and 0.0532 levels coincide with Fibonacci levels, reinforcing their technical significance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for USUALUSDT could involve using a bearish breakout setup on the 15-minute chart. Triggers would be a candle closing below the 20-period moving average and a bearish engulfing pattern, confirmed by a close below key support (e.g., 0.0525). Stop-loss could be placed above the 50-period MA, with a take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (0.0525). The strategy would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum during periods of high volatility, particularly in the overnight session when volume tends to increase.