Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) on 2025-09-14

• The pair USUALUSDT opened at 0.0708 on 2025-09-13 and closed at 0.0666 on 2025-09-14.
• A significant decline of 8.75% occurred over the 24-hour period, with a total volume of 45,688,224.5.
• Momentum shifted from bearish to mixed as RSI moved into oversold territory and volume diverged from price at the end of the session.
• Volatility increased late in the session, with the price dropping below 0.0700 and closing near a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the earlier rally.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during the decline, suggesting heightened uncertainty and potential reversal setups.

Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0708 on 2025-09-13 and closed at 0.0666 on 2025-09-14, with a high of 0.0724 and a low of 0.0657. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 45,688,224.5, and notional turnover reached ~$3,183,000 (assuming a 100 million USDT reference volume).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern showed a bearish continuation with a deep retracement of the earlier rally. Key support levels emerged at 0.0700 and 0.0675, with 0.0650 as a critical psychological floor. A long lower shadow near 0.0670 on the final 15-minute candle suggested short-covering or a potential reversal. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 0.0700, followed by a hanging man near 0.0680, both signaling distribution. A doji formed at 0.0675, indicating indecision between buyers and sellers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bearish for the majority of the session, with the 50EMA acting as a dynamic resistance. Price broke below both around 03:00 ET and remained below for the rest of the session. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) were not available for this period but would be crucial to assess medium-term positioning.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained negative for most of the session, with a bearish crossover in the morning and a bearish divergence in the evening. RSI reached 29 by 16:00 ET, suggesting oversold conditions. However, volume failed to confirm a rebound during this phase. The combination of low RSI and divergent volume suggests a cautious outlook ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the decline, with the price dropping below the lower band at 0.0680 and closing near the lower band at 0.0666. The Bollinger Band contraction at 0.0700 had previously signaled potential range-bound consolidation before the breakout. The current position near the lower band suggests heightened bearish pressure and a potential bounce scenario.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night decline, with the highest notional turnover occurring around 15:45 ET as the price dropped below 0.0670. The final two hours of the session saw declining volume despite the price falling to 0.0666, signaling potential exhaustion among sellers. A volume divergence between the 15:45 ET to 16:00 ET candles hinted at a potential near-term bottom.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% retracement level of the earlier rally occurred at 0.0676, which the price approached but failed to hold, closing at 0.0666. This suggests a deeper correction is possible. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels were tested but failed to provide support, confirming the bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish engulfing and doji patterns, as well as the oversold RSI divergence, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short entry at 0.0670 with a stop just above the 0.0675 doji high and a target at 0.0650. This setup would aim to capture the continuation of bearish momentum in a high-volatility environment. The strategy would benefit from using a 15-minute chart for entry confirmation and daily indicators to filter out noise. A trailing stop could be triggered after the price breaks below 0.0660.