Market Overview for Usual/Tether USDt (USUALUSDT) on 2025-09-11

• USUALUSDT closed near a key support level after a sharp intraday pullback from 0.0684.
• Volatility expanded during the overnight session with a high-low range of 0.0019 in a 24-hour span.
• RSI remains below 40, suggesting potential for a rebound or consolidation in the near term.
• Bollinger Bands show price tightening around the 0.0668–0.0672 range, indicating a potential breakout setup.
• Notional turnover surged to $78.6 million during the early morning (ET) with no clear price confirmation.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11, USUALUSDT opened at 0.0675, reached a high of 0.0684, and closed at 0.066. The 24-hour low was 0.0648. Total volume amounted to 68.65 million, with a notional turnover of approximately $4.66 million. The market displayed a clear intraday bearish impulse during the overnight hours but stabilized in the morning session.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a distinct bearish reversal pattern during the early hours of 0.0911, marked by a long lower wick and a closing near the session low. This may indicate short-term capitulation or accumulation near the 0.066 level. On the 15-minute chart, a bullish engulfing pattern formed after the 0.066 support was tested multiple times during the morning. Key resistance appears to be forming at 0.0676, with a potential support zone between 0.0659 and 0.0661.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging around 0.0668–0.0669. The 50SMA appears to be holding above the 20SMA, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are in a bullish crossover, but the 100-day MA is acting as a near-term ceiling. Price action could test the 50-day MA at 0.0675, which may act as a pivot point in the coming session.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bearish crossover earlier in the session, but it has since flattened near the zero line, indicating a potential pause in downward momentum. The RSI remains below 40, consistent with oversold territory, but lacks a clear upward divergence. This could imply a short-term bounce or a continuation into further consolidation. On the daily chart, the RSI is stabilizing between 45–50, suggesting that the pair may not see a strong directional move without a breakout above 0.0675.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when price closes above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below a key support level. The strategy would target a 1.5%–2% profit range within the next four candles, assuming volatility remains above average and volume increases. This approach may align with the observed bullish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence near 0.066.

The next 24 hours may see a test of the 0.0675–0.0676 resistance zone. If this level is breached with strong volume, a pullback could be expected to 0.0665–0.0667. However, traders should be cautious of a potential false breakout or continuation of consolidation below 0.0672. Risk remains moderate, with key levels to watch at 0.0676 (resistance), 0.0665 (support), and 0.0681 (next target on a break above 0.0676).