Market Overview for Usual/Tether on 2025-11-09

• USUAL/USDT posted a bearish close after a sharp intraday reversal.
• Momentum dipped to oversold territory, signaling potential rebound.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with volume spiking into the late NY session.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed late but failed to hold, suggesting bear pressure.
• The 20-period MA provided temporary support before the final decline.

The USUAL/USDT pair opened at 0.0335 on 2025-11-09 (ET), reached a high of 0.0344, and touched a low of 0.0320 before closing at 0.0337 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 57,660,938.5 units, with a notional turnover of $1,952,444.03 at the close price. Price action showed a bearish bias, with a late-day rebound failing to hold, ending the session lower.

Price tested the 0.0338 level twice, with both attempts failing to hold. The 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart acted as a temporary floor in the early hours, but the 50-period MA failed to hold the price after 23:00 ET. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to have crossed above the 200-period MA, indicating a potential bullish bias at the macro level, though this was contradicted by the intraday bearish reversal.

Momentum indicators showed mixed signals. The RSI dipped below 30 in the late NY session, suggesting oversold conditions and hinting at a possible rebound. The MACD crossed into negative territory, with bearish divergence forming in the final two hours. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the price drop from 0.0344 to 0.0320, indicating heightened volatility and potential for consolidation in the near term.

Volume spiked during the late-night trading session (ET), with the 15-minute bar at 03:00 ET showing one of the highest turnover amounts. However, the failure to hold the 0.0338 level despite strong volume suggested bearish conviction. A divergence between rising volume and falling price in the last hour of the session raises caution for further downside.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest described involves identifying bullish engulfing candlestick patterns on the daily chart of BLSH and entering a long position at the close price, with a fixed holding period of exactly three trading days. This strategy leverages the potential for reversal momentum following a strong bearish trend, as indicated by the engulfing pattern. Given the recent bearish action observed in USUAL/USDT, similar strategies could face challenges in the short term unless a clear reversal pattern emerges. The fixed-holding period approach eliminates the need for active risk management but exposes the strategy to adverse price movements if the reversal fails to materialize. The performance of such a strategy could vary significantly based on the underlying asset's volatility and broader market conditions.