Market Overview: USDTPLN on 2025-10-03

• Price declined from 3.636 to 3.609 over 24 hours, showing bearish momentum in the last 15 minutes.
• RSI near neutral zone suggests potential for reversal but lacks clear overbought/oversold signals.
• Volume dipped in the last 6 hours, indicating lower conviction in recent price moves.
• Bollinger Bands tightened mid-session, hinting at a potential breakout.
• A large-volume bearish engulfing pattern appeared in the early ET hours.

Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) opened at 3.633 on October 2, reached a high of 3.636, and closed at 3.609 by 12:00 ET on October 3. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 181,671.50 PLN, with a notional turnover of approximately 519,249.81 USDT. Price action shows a bearish drift, especially in the late ET session.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels have formed near 3.634 and 3.636, with support emerging around 3.615 and 3.612. A large-volume bearish engulfing pattern occurred in the 16:00–16:15 ET timeframe, which may signal a short-term bearish shift. A doji candle appeared near 3.615 in the early morning, indicating indecision. The price has tested the 3.615 support twice and appears to be consolidating in a descending triangle pattern on the 15-minute chart.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both declined and are currently below the 3.620 level, aligning with the bearish bias. The 50-period MA has crossed below the 100-period MA, reinforcing a short-term bearish setup. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA remains a strong support level at 3.590, which has not been tested yet in the current session.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned bearish and the signal line crossed the MACD line to the downside, suggesting ongoing short-term selling pressure. The RSI has stabilized near 48–50, avoiding overbought or oversold extremes, indicating the market remains in a consolidation phase. There are no clear reversal signals from the oscillator yet, but the lack of overbought conditions could allow for a potential bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early part of the session, but Bollinger Bands have since tightened, especially between 18:00 and 02:00 ET. This suggests a period of consolidation and may precede a breakout. Price has been trading near the lower band since the early morning, hinting at oversold conditions and a possible rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was elevated in the early part of the session, especially around the 19:00–20:00 ET timeframe. However, volume has declined since 06:00 ET, with the last few hours showing significantly lower trading activity. This may indicate reduced conviction in the bearish move, but without a corresponding rise in price, it could also suggest a lack of follow-through buying pressure. Turnover has mirrored volume, with no major divergences observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the most recent 15-minute swing (from 3.636 to 3.609), key levels at 3.624 (38.2%) and 3.618 (61.8%) appear to have acted as temporary floors. On the daily chart, a retracement of the last major upward move (from 3.590 to 3.636) would target 3.614–3.616 as a possible support zone. The price is currently hovering just above these levels, suggesting a potential bounce or a test of the 3.612 support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on using a combination of Bollinger Band contractions and RSI divergence to predict breakouts. In this session, the contraction observed between 18:00 and 02:00 ET aligns with a potential breakout setup, especially when paired with an RSI divergence near 3.615. A possible strategy would involve entering a short position on a breakout below the lower Bollinger band, with a stop above the 3.620 level. Given the current market structure and the presence of Fibonacci support, a bearish bias seems justified for the next few hours, though a break above 3.625 would invalidate this setup.