Market Overview: USDCCZK (USDC/Czech Koruna) 24-Hour Analysis

• • •

• Price surged from 20.75 to 20.86, but closed at 20.81, amid moderate volatility.
• Momentum shifted mid-day as RSI rose into overbought territory before retreating.
• Volume spiked in late morning and afternoon, suggesting key inflection points.
• Bollinger Band expansion confirmed a breakout attempt, but price retraced near the 20-period MA.
• Notable bullish engulfing and doji patterns emerged during the session.

The USDCCZK pair opened at 20.75 on 2025-09-09 at 12:00 ET and surged to an intraday high of 20.86 before settling at 20.81 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-10. Total volume amounted to 73,904.0 units, while notional turnover was 1,514,686.36 CZK (calculated from high * volume). The session saw dynamic price swings, liquidity shifts, and multiple pattern formations, indicating mixed sentiment and testing of key levels.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a strong bullish engulfing pattern at 08:15 ET as price rose from 20.80 to 20.85. A doji followed at 09:45 ET, suggesting indecision after a high of 20.86. Key resistance levels emerged at 20.86, 20.81, and 20.79, with support at 20.75 and 20.72. The price appears to have tested and partially failed to hold at 20.81, with bears stepping in after 11:45 ET.

Moving Averages

Price oscillated around the 20-period MA, which moved between 20.79 and 20.81, while the 50-period MA lagged slightly behind. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MAs remain relatively aligned near 20.76–20.78, with price currently above all. This suggests short-term bullish momentum but potential for consolidation or pullback in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bullish divergence between 07:15 and 09:00 ET, confirming the morning rally. RSI reached 68–70, entering overbought territory by midday, which coincided with a sharp pullback. The RSI's failure to confirm the 20.86 high at 08:45 ET signaled weakening momentum. By 11:45 ET, RSI fell below 50, hinting at bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly as price tested the upper band during the 08:15–09:30 ET rally. After reaching the high of 20.86, price collapsed toward the middle band, with the lower band forming support at 20.72–20.75. The Bollinger Band width expanded from 0.01–0.04, indicating a period of volatility expansion. Price appears to be in a consolidation phase within this range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in two major waves: a morning wave from 07:15 to 09:45 ET (peak volume 24,998.0) and a late-day wave from 14:00 to 15:15 ET (peak volume 18,870.0). Notional turnover mirrored these patterns, peaking at 514,000 CZK at 15:30 ET. Divergences were observed between price and volume during the mid-morning rally, suggesting potential exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 07:15–09:30 ET rally from 20.79 to 20.86, key levels at 20.83 (38.2%) and 20.80 (61.8%) were tested and rejected. Price retreated from 20.86 to 20.79, and the 61.8% level acted as a temporary floor. A daily Fibonacci from 20.72 to 20.86 shows 20.79 as a likely pivot point for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed volatility expansion and divergence in RSI, a potential backtest strategy could involve a breakout-following approach, entering long when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band and RSI remains above 50 for two consecutive periods. A stop-loss could be placed just below a recent swing low (e.g., 20.75) and a target set at the next Fibonacci level (20.83). This approach would aim to capture short-term bullish momentum while controlling risk with defined stops and limits.