Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) – October 8, 2025

• USDC/Zloty traded higher over 24 hours, closing above $3.64 with increased volatility and volume.
• Strong bullish momentum confirmed by RSI and MACD divergence with price.
• Price remains above key 15-minute and daily moving averages.
• Bollinger Bands show recent expansion, suggesting rising volatility.
• Volume and turnover diverged during late-night consolidation, hinting at possible accumulation.

The USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) pair opened at 3.629 on October 7 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 3.658 and a low of 3.627 before closing at 3.649 on October 8 at 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 1,978,053 Zloty, with a notional turnover of approximately $2.2 million (calculated using 15-minute OHLCV data). Price action showed a clear upward bias, supported by positive momentum and accumulation-like volume patterns during overnight hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a strong bullish bias, with price consolidating above key support levels in the 3.64–3.645 range. A significant bullish engulfing pattern formed during the early hours of October 8, confirming a breakout from a narrow consolidation phase. Additionally, price action showed a rising wedge formation between 3.64 and 3.658, with the upper boundary acting as a dynamic resistance that failed to hold, suggesting further upside potential. A bearish inside bar at 3.658 around 14:30 ET may indicate a short-term pause, but the overall structure remains constructive.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remained well above the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bullish trend. The 20SMA hovered near 3.645, while the 50SMA was at 3.643, indicating strong short-term momentum. On the daily chart, price continues to trade above the 50DMA, with the 100DMA at 3.640 and the 200DMA at 3.636 also providing support. The alignment of short- and medium-term moving averages with price action suggests that the uptrend may extend for at least one more session.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover and a strong positive divergence with price, particularly after 02:00 ET, confirming growing bullish momentum. The RSI climbed to 62 by 15:00 ET, indicating moderate strength without entering overbought territory. This suggests that buyers remain in control, but a pullback could be imminent if RSI rises above 65. Momentum indicators thus align with the price action, reinforcing the potential for a continuation of the upward move.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after 02:00 ET, reflecting increased volatility as buyers pushed price above the upper band. The upper band reached 3.655 by midday, while the lower band remained near 3.642. Price has remained within the bands for most of the session, but the expansion suggests increased activity in the market. A potential contraction in the coming hours could signal a period of consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early morning hours, with the heaviest trading occurring between 03:00 and 06:00 ET, indicating potential accumulation or institutional participation. Notional turnover spiked during these hours, aligning with price action. However, volume decreased during the late-night consolidation phase, suggesting short-term uncertainty. The divergence between price and volume may indicate a possible pause in the uptrend unless volume picks up again in the next 24 hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 3.628 to 3.658, key levels at 3.643 (38.2%) and 3.649 (61.8%) appear to be acting as support and potential targets for the next move. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the previous week’s swing stands at 3.655, which aligns with recent resistance levels. Price has already tested the 61.8% level twice in the last 24 hours without breaking through, suggesting it may be a key area to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy hinges on identifying a bullish engulfing pattern at the base of a consolidation range, followed by a breakout above key moving averages and resistance levels. Given the current structure of USDCPLN, a viable hypothesis would be to enter long at a confirmed breakout above the 3.652 resistance level with a stop-loss placed below 3.643 (the 38.2% Fib level and 20SMA). A trailing take-profit at 3.658 (prior high) could be adjusted as the trend continues. The alignment of candlestick patterns, moving averages, and RSI divergence supports this approach, though volume divergence during consolidation suggests caution.