Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) - October 24, 2025

• USDC/Zloty traded in a narrow range, forming consolidation patterns and testing key support/resistance levels.
• Volume surged during a midday pullback, confirming bearish pressure but failed to push past critical Fibonacci levels.
• RSI and MACD showed muted momentum, suggesting a continuation of sideways trading with low conviction for trend initiation.

Market Snapshot

At 12:00 ET on October 24, 2025, USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) opened at 3.645, reached a high of 3.650, a low of 3.631, and closed at 3.647. Total volume over 24 hours was 1,592,714, and notional turnover (value) was approximately $5,784,108. The pair has been consolidating within a defined range amid mixed momentum signals.

Structure & Formations

Over the 24-hour period, USDCPLN exhibited several consolidation patterns, particularly between the levels of 3.644 and 3.649. A notable bearish pullback was observed between 20:00 and 21:30 ET, where price dipped to 3.633 before bouncing off key Fibonacci support at 3.636. Later in the session, price formed a small bullish engulfing pattern around 06:30–06:45 ET and a hammer-like reversal at 09:45–10:00 ET, suggesting buyers may attempt a breakout. A doji formed at 01:30 ET, signaling indecision after a short-lived rally. The pair remains in a tight trading range, with key supports at 3.639 and 3.633, and resistances at 3.646 and 3.649.

Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged around 3.644–3.645, forming a tight cluster that price has been oscillating around. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at 3.643 and the 200-period MA at 3.641, with price currently above both, indicating a mildly bullish but consolidation-bound bias.

The MACD remained near the zero line, oscillating between -0.002 and +0.003, with no clear signal of a bullish or bearish crossover. The RSI has been fluctuating between 45 and 58, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Price may continue to trade sideways unless it breaks either the 3.639 or 3.649 levels with increased volume.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands have been contracting, especially between 03:00 and 06:30 ET, indicating a period of low volatility. Price frequently tested the lower band in the early hours before drifting back toward the midline. The recent expansion of the bands post 10:00 ET suggests a possible breakout attempt. However, with price still within the bands and no clear momentum confirmation, a continuation of range-bound trading is more likely.

Volume & Turnover Confirmation

Volume spiked during the 21:00–21:30 ET pullback, with a large candle forming on a high volume of 71,270 USDC, signaling bearish exhaustion. However, price failed to break below the 3.636 Fibonacci level, which acted as support. Conversely, the late afternoon rally saw higher turnover without a significant volume spike, suggesting a lack of conviction among buyers. This divergence may indicate that the next meaningful move could come from a breakout with increased volume confirmation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 3.650 to 3.631, key levels at 3.636 (38.2%), 3.639 (50%), and 3.642 (61.8%) have provided significant support/resistance. The 3.636 level held well during the midday pullback, and price has since bounced off it multiple times. On the daily chart, the 3.633–3.649 range defines a critical consolidation phase, with 3.643 acting as a key pivot level. A break above 3.649 or below 3.633 could signal the start of a new trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The technical analysis above highlights several potential entry points—particularly the bullish engulfing and doji patterns—suggesting a backtesting approach using candlestick signals could yield meaningful insights. A backtest using the “Bullish Engulfing” pattern, as defined by a larger bullish body fully engulfing the previous candlestick and closing higher, could be tested over the last 30 days. The strategy would open a long position at the open of the next candle after the pattern is confirmed and hold for three days. Given the current low volatility and defined range, this approach may be effective in capturing short-term reversals. If combined with a stop-loss near key support levels like 3.633 and a take-profit at 3.649, the risk-reward profile becomes more favorable. This aligns with the observed price behavior on USDCPLN, where breakouts often occur with confirmation from volume and Fibonacci levels.