Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN): October 12, 2025

• Price action on USDC/Zloty traded in a 24-hour range of 3.69–3.75, with a bearish bias in the early hours before recovery toward the close.
• Volatility expanded midday as prices fell to 3.690, followed by a rebound with increased volume and momentum divergence.
• The RSI approached oversold levels before a late rally, suggesting a potential short-term reversal in demand.
• Notable candlestick patterns include a bullish engulfing pattern near 3.72–3.74 and a bearish harami near 3.74–3.73.
• Turnover spiked during the 05:30–06:30 ET window, aligning with a sharp 3.704–3.698 decline amid heavy volume.

The USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) pair opened at 3.748 on October 11, 2025, at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 3.754, a low of 3.690, and closed at 3.734 at 12:00 ET on October 12. Over the 24-hour period, volume amounted to 3,612,189.0 units, with a total turnover of approximately 13,135,858.80 Zloty.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure of USDC/Zloty over the past 24 hours reveals multiple key levels and patterns. The 3.74–3.75 range appears to be a recurring resistance zone, with several failed attempts to break above 3.754 during the early morning hours. In contrast, the 3.72–3.73 level acted as a strong support zone, evidenced by a bullish engulfing pattern and a subsequent consolidation phase. A bearish harami pattern emerged at 3.74–3.73 during the late afternoon, signaling a temporary pause in the bullish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA) closely tracked the price action, confirming the intraday volatility and late recovery. The 50-period SMA showed a slight bearish bias early on but aligned with the price as the pair rebounded in the late hours. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA acted as a dynamic support line, while the 200-period SMA remained flat, suggesting limited long-term directional bias at this stage.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover early in the session, aligning with the price drop from 3.75 to 3.69. However, a bullish crossover occurred in the final hours, suggesting increased buying pressure. The RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 during the midday decline but rebounded sharply above 50, indicating a short-term reversal in momentum. The divergence between the price and RSI during the early morning suggests a possible exhaustion in the bearish move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 05:30–06:30 ET as prices fell to 3.690, breaching the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. The price remained within the bands for most of the session, with the bands narrowing slightly in the afternoon, indicating a potential consolidation phase. At the close, the pair was trading near the midline of the bands, suggesting neutral momentum and balanced pressure between buyers and sellers.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning decline (3.75–3.69) with a total of 171,508 units traded at 05:30 ET. This was the highest volume candle of the day, confirming the bearish move. In contrast, the late morning and afternoon saw more moderate volume levels, with the highest turnover occurring during the 05:30–06:30 ET period. A divergence is observed in the afternoon as prices rose without a corresponding volume increase, suggesting limited conviction in the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 3.754–3.690 swing, key retracement levels include 3.729 (38.2%) and 3.742 (61.8%). The price found support at both levels, confirming their importance as short-term psychological benchmarks. The 3.742 level acted as a pivot point, and a rebound from this level led to a consolidation phase in the late hours. Daily-level retracements align with the 3.73–3.74 range, reinforcing the likelihood of continued sideways action in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for USDC/Zloty involves entering long positions when the price rebounds from the 3.72–3.74 support range with confirmation from the RSI (above 50) and volume confirmation. Short positions could be initiated on breaks below 3.72 with bearish MACD and RSI below 50. The strategy could use stop-loss levels at 3.71 and 3.754 to manage risk, with target levels at 3.745 and 3.705 based on Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels.