Market Overview: USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) Daily Price Action and Technical Signals

• Price of USDC/Zloty opened at 3.622 and surged to a high of 3.635 before retracing to a 24-hour low of 3.605, closing near 3.618.
• Strong momentum early in the session with a sharp 1.5% rally, but overbought RSI and diverging volume suggest possible consolidation.
• Volatility expanded during the early morning, with Bollinger Bands widening and price testing both upper and lower boundaries.
• Notable 15-minute bullish and bearish engulfing patterns indicate potential for trend exhaustion or reversal in the near term.
• Total volume amounted to 1,027,523 units, with turnover reaching 3,510,441.87 PLN, showing uneven buying and selling pressure across the day.

The USDC/Zloty pair opened at 3.622 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and hit a high of 3.635 before retreating to a low of 3.605 by the end of the 24-hour window, closing at 3.618 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total volume reached 1,027,523 units, with a notional turnover of 3,510,441.87 PLN.

The 15-minute chart reveals a complex price action with key support and resistance levels emerging around 3.615–3.625. A significant bullish engulfing pattern formed around 05:30 ET as price broke above a prior consolidation range, triggering a rally. However, this was followed by a bearish engulfing candle at 06:15 ET, hinting at a possible reversal or pause in upward momentum. A notable doji formed near 3.63 at 04:45 ET, indicating indecision and potential for a pullback. Resistance appears to cluster at 3.63–3.635, while support is forming at 3.615–3.62.

RSI moved from overbought territory (70+) to mid-range levels (50–60), indicating a moderation in momentum after the early morning breakout. MACD showed a bearish crossover during the afternoon, suggesting waning bullish pressure. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the morning hours, aligning with the heightened volatility and price swings. Price currently resides just below the upper band, but with the midline trending downward, caution is warranted. The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart sits at approximately 3.628, while the 50-period average is closer to 3.625, showing a tightening convergence as the trend flattens.

Fibonacci retracement levels for the key 15-minute swing from 3.622 to 3.635 show 3.625 at the 38.2% level and 3.615 at the 61.8% level, both of which appear to have acted as pivot points. A 24-hour Fibonacci retracement from the high to low reveals potential short-term support at 3.612 (78.6%) and resistance at 3.632 (23.6%). With price currently consolidating near 3.618, a test of the 3.615 level is likely in the near term.

The backtesting strategy described focuses on a time-based breakout entry using 15-minute candlestick patterns. The hypothesis leverages bullish and bearish engulfing patterns as confirmation signals, paired with RSI divergence to avoid false breakouts. A long entry is triggered on a bullish engulfing candle when RSI is rising above 50, with a stop-loss placed below the prior swing low. A short entry follows a bearish engulfing pattern when RSI is falling from overbought levels, with a stop-loss above the prior swing high. The strategy uses a 1.5% target for exits. Given the observed patterns and RSI behavior on the 15-minute chart, the setup aligns with the hypothesis, though the high volatility and mixed volume signals suggest the need for tighter risk controls.