Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN): 24-Hour Summary and Key Indicators

• Price surged to 3.641 intraday before consolidating around 3.630.
• RSI and MACD showed divergences, suggesting potential overbought conditions.
• Volatility expanded during the early ET hours, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• Volume spiked in late ET hours, confirming bearish pressure near 3.620.
• Fibonacci retracement levels highlighted potential support at 3.625 and resistance at 3.639.

Overview and Key Data

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11, the USDC/Zloty pair (USDCPLN) opened at 3.625 and closed at 3.629, with a high of 3.641 and a low of 3.612. The 24-hour volume reached 1,196,375.0, and the total turnover amounted to approximately 4,365,904.5 PLN, indicating active short-term trading and bearish momentum in the latter half of the period.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data revealed a key resistance at 3.641, where the price struggled to maintain upward momentum after an intraday peak. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 13:15 ET when the price fell sharply from 3.637 to 3.621. A doji near 3.630 during the 04:15–04:30 ET period indicated indecision and potential reversal. Support levels appear to form around 3.625 and 3.612, with 3.625 acting as a key psychological barrier.

Moving Averages and MACD / RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned, with the 20-period crossing below the 50-period in a bearish crossover near 15:00 ET. The MACD line crossed the signal line in the negative territory, signaling waning momentum. The RSI reached an overbought level of 75 at 06:30 ET but declined into neutral to oversold territory by 16:00 ET, indicating a potential bearish correction.

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Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded during the early ET hours (06:00–09:00) as the price surged from 3.630 to 3.641, reflecting increased volatility. The price traded near the upper band at 3.640–3.641, but then fell sharply below the middle band by 13:15 ET, entering the lower band by 16:00 ET. The narrowing of bands between 00:00 and 06:00 ET suggested a consolidation phase before the breakout.

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Volume and Turnover

Volume remained relatively steady during the first half of the 24-hour period but spiked sharply between 06:00 and 10:00 ET, with one 15-minute candle (09:45 ET) showing a volume of 125,951.0, the highest of the day. Turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at 469,319.6 PLN during the 09:45–10:00 ET window. Notably, the price action and volume did not align perfectly: while volume surged, the price declined, suggesting bearish exhaustion or possible washout activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 3.612 (low at 15:45 ET) to 3.641 (high at 06:30 ET), key retracement levels include 3.633 (61.8%), 3.628 (50%), and 3.625 (38.2%). The price found support at 3.625 and 3.621, with the 3.625 level being particularly significant. A break below this level could lead to a test of 3.612, while a rebound above 3.628 may indicate a short-term recovery.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using a combination of the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart. A sell signal could be generated when the 20-period crosses below the 50-period, especially when accompanied by a bearish MACD crossover and RSI below 50. This aligns with the observed bearish engulfing pattern and volume confirmation seen in the latter half of the day. The strategy should include a stop-loss below the 3.625 support level and a target near the 3.612 level, with tight risk management essential due to the high volatility and frequent consolidations.

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