Market Overview: USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) 24-Hour Price Action

Summary
• Price action shows a strong bullish bias with a 0.27% gain from 3.638 to 3.651.
• Volume increased notably during the overnight session, confirming buying strength.
• Momentum indicators remain in balanced territory, with RSI near neutral.

Market Overview

The USDC/Zloty pair (USDCPLN) opened at 3.638 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 3.651 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-14. The 24-hour high reached 3.655, while the low touched 3.633. Total volume for the period was 1,886,188 units, with a notional turnover of 686,408 Zloty, showing steady accumulation and order flow.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bullish consolidation pattern overnight, with a key support level appearing around 3.649 and resistance forming near 3.655. Notable formations include a bullish engulfing pattern at 18:45 ET and a doji-like structure at 04:45 ET, suggesting indecision and potential trend reversal signals.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging upward, indicating short-term bullish momentum. On a daily basis, the 50/100/200 SMA structure appears in a bullish alignment, with price above all three averages, suggesting a continuation of a longer-term uptrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD is in positive territory with a narrowing histogram, suggesting a slowdown in bullish momentum. The RSI stands at 57, near neutral, with no overbought or oversold signals detected, implying price remains within a balanced range for now.

Bollinger Bands

Price is trading near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a period of high volatility and potential for a pullback toward the 3.649–3.652 mid-band region. The band width is moderately expanded, signaling active price action and trader engagement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked in the overnight hours, particularly between 20:00 ET and 05:00 ET, when price advanced toward the 3.655 high. Turnover and price moved in tandem, suggesting strong order flow and alignment between buyers and sellers. No major divergences were observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 3.633 to 3.655, price currently resides near the 61.8% retracement level at 3.647. On a daily basis, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels align with 3.649 and 3.652 respectively, reinforcing the importance of these zones for near-term support and resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a Bullish Engulfing pattern and strong overnight volume, a one-day holding backtest based on such signals could provide valuable insight into the potential for trend continuation. Since the automated pattern recognition is unavailable, I recommend retrieving the daily OHLC data for USD/PLN and calculating the Bullish Engulfing occurrences algorithmically. This method ensures accuracy and allows us to measure the effectiveness of the pattern over a defined historical period.