Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN): 24-Hour Candlestick Breakdown

• Price action showed a bearish bias, with a 1.03% decline over 24 hours.
• Volatility remained moderate, with Bollinger Bands contracting in late hours.
• RSI hovered near oversold territory, suggesting potential for short-term bounce.
• Volume was concentrated during the late-ET window, with no clear divergence to price.
• Key Fibonacci levels at 3.621 and 3.612 may dictate near-term direction.

The USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) pair opened at 3.630 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 3.633, dipped to a low of 3.610, and closed at 3.611 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. The 24-hour volume totaled 486,149.0 PLN, with a notional turnover of 1,747,988.5 PLN.

The 15-minute OHLCV data revealed a bearish bias, particularly from 19:00 to 00:00 ET, where the price declined from 3.627 to 3.612. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:45 ET (3.626 to 3.621), reinforcing the downward move. A doji appeared at 22:45 ET (3.617 to 3.615), signaling a potential pause in the bearish momentum. Resistance levels include 3.621, 3.626, and 3.630, while support is currently at 3.612, 3.609, and 3.605.

MACD showed bearish divergence as the line declined from positive to negative territory throughout the session. RSI fell to 30 by 05:00 ET, nearing oversold conditions but failed to reverse, suggesting lingering bearish pressure. Bollinger Bands tightened in the late hours of 2025-10-02, indicating a potential breakout or reversal. Price remained below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming the short-term downtrend.

Volume spiked late in the session, particularly after 03:00 ET, coinciding with a pullback to 3.610. The increase in volume during the 03:00–09:00 ET window confirmed the bearish bias, with no significant divergence from price action. Fibonacci retracements on the major 15-minute swing from 3.633 to 3.610 show 38.2% at 3.624 and 61.8% at 3.617, both of which acted as dynamic resistance levels.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtesting strategy focuses on Fibonacci retracement levels and candlestick pattern confirmation for entry signals. Specifically, it targets short entries at the 61.8% retracement level (3.617) upon the formation of bearish engulfing patterns or evening stars. Long entries are triggered at the 38.2% level (3.624) with bullish confirmation such as bullish engulfing or hammer patterns. Stop-loss levels are placed just below key support and above resistance, respectively, while take-profit targets are set using the next Fibonacci level and RSI divergence. The strategy performed well during the 2025-10-02 19:45–05:00 ET window, capturing the decline from 3.626 to 3.610 with minimal drawdown.