Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN): 24-Hour Analysis

Summary
• Price consolidated in a tight range near 3.587-3.592 during peak volume periods.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 3.585-3.591, suggesting potential follow-through.
• Volume surged at 10:45 ET, confirming a sharp rally to 3.595 as institutional participation increased.
• RSI and MACD showed divergence during early-morning consolidation, indicating possible bearish exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed ahead of the 3.595 breakout, signaling increased directional volatility.

Market Overview

The USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) pair opened at 3.571 on 2026-01-03 12:00 ET, reached a high of 3.595, a low of 3.570, and closed at 3.584 as of 2026-01-04 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 756,173.0 PLN, with a notional turnover of 2,738,353.72 USD.

Structure & Moving Averages

Price action on the 5-minute chart showed a clear consolidation range between 3.584 and 3.592 before breaking out to the upside. A 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line in the final hours, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 100-period MA from above, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish bias.

Momentum Indicators

MACD showed a bullish crossover in the last 3 hours, with positive divergence observed during the morning consolidation. RSI fluctuated between 48 and 62, indicating a balanced market but with occasional overbought conditions near 60. A bearish divergence was noted in the 2–4 AM ET window, suggesting potential for a pullback.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted between 02:00 and 07:00 ET, with price hovering near the middle band. The 10:45 ET candle saw a sharp upward move that pushed price near the upper band, with volatility expanding thereafter. This suggests increasing conviction in the bullish direction ahead of the final hours.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 10:45 ET candle (90,024.0 PLN) and again at 11:30 ET (73,609.0 PLN), aligning with the 3.595 high and confirming institutional accumulation. Turnover also surged during these periods, reinforcing the validity of the upward breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 5-minute swing from 3.570 to 3.595 shows the 3.591–3.589 level aligning with the 61.8% retrace, suggesting key resistance and potential for short-term profit-taking. On the daily chart, the 3.584 level corresponds with the 38.2% retracement of the previous week’s range, offering immediate support.

The breakout to 3.595 and subsequent pullback to 3.584 suggest a potential continuation pattern, with the 3.591–3.593 level acting as a key psychological resistance. Traders should remain cautious of potential volatility ahead, especially with high volume observed during the 10:45 ET candle.