Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) – 24-Hour Analysis

• USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) traded in a tight range, with price consolidating above 3.578 after a sharp decline to 3.572.
• Strong volume surges occurred during the 05:00–08:30 ET timeframe, but price failed to maintain follow-through.
• RSI and MACD showed weakening momentum following the 06:00–08:00 ET rebound, signaling potential bearish exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands tightened after the 04:00 ET low, indicating a potential breakout or sideways continuation ahead.
• Volume and turnover diverged during the 09:00–11:30 ET rally, suggesting bearish pressure may continue.

USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) opened at 3.594 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 3.609 before declining to a 24-hour low of 3.572. The pair closed at 3.594 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. Total traded volume stood at approximately 1,583,240 Zloty, with a turnover of ~$4,708,796, indicating moderate to heavy activity during volatile periods.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a clear bearish breakdown during the early morning hours, with a significant rejection at the 3.572 level. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 09:00–11:00 ET, but it failed to close above the previous high of 3.609. A doji formed at 04:45 ET, signaling indecision, followed by a sharp decline that formed a potential bearish trend line from 3.609 to 3.572. Key resistance appears to be at 3.609, while 3.572 now acts as short-term support. A further breakdown would likely see price testing 3.565 and then 3.557.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both crossed below the price action since the 06:00–08:00 ET window, reinforcing a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 3.593, aligning with the recent consolidation range, while the 200-period MA provides a longer-term support level near 3.585. The 100-period MA at 3.591 suggests that further bearish momentum could carry price below this level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line at 05:30 ET, confirming bearish momentum during the drop to 3.572. RSI reached oversold territory (35–40) during the decline, suggesting a potential short-term rebound could emerge. However, the failure to close above 3.609 indicates that buyers have not yet taken control. RSI has since rebounded to 50, indicating neutral to bullish conditions for now, but a sustained move above 55 would be needed to confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Price action saw a narrow Bollinger Band contraction between 04:00–05:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion to the downside, with the 3.572 low falling just above the lower band. This suggests that volatility has increased as the market digested the price drop. The current price of 3.594 is comfortably inside the upper half of the bands, suggesting a continuation of the recent consolidation rather than a breakout. A test of the upper band at 3.609 could trigger a retest of the 3.606–3.608 range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 05:15–08:30 ET window, coinciding with the price drop to 3.572. Turnover also surged during this period, confirming the bearish breakdown. However, from 09:00–11:30 ET, volume and turnover diverged during the 3.58–3.593 rally, indicating that buying pressure was weak despite the price increase. This divergence suggests that the bullish move is not fully supported and that bears remain in control.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the high of 3.609 to the low of 3.572 show that price is currently trading near the 38.2% retracement level at 3.594. A break above this would bring the 50% retracement at 3.597 into focus, while a failure to hold 3.594 could see price fall back to the 38.2% level. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from a prior swing high at 3.609 to a support of 3.557 sits at 3.587, which has been a key level of resistance and support multiple times over the past 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined assumes that a breakout above the 3.594–3.609 range would confirm a bullish reversal. Traders could look to enter long positions on a close above 3.609, with a stop loss placed below 3.594 to capture the recent consolidation pattern. If the price fails to hold above 3.594 and retests 3.572, a short bias could be confirmed, with a target at 3.56. This aligns with the observed MACD divergence and weak volume during the rally, supporting the idea that the market remains bearish until a clear breakout is confirmed.