Market Overview: USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) 24-Hour Analysis

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• USDC/Zloty traded in a narrow range during early hours before a gradual rise into late Polish trading hours.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 3.650, suggesting short-term buying interest.
• Volatility dipped after 22:00 ET, but volume remained elevated during late-night and early morning sessions.
• RSI hovered near 50, indicating a balanced momentum environment with no overbought/oversold extremes.
• Price retested key 15-min and daily Fibonacci levels, with 3.656 and 3.660 acting as psychological benchmarks.

Price Action and Key Levels

USDCPLN opened at 3.650 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 3.663 before closing at 3.659 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The total volume traded over 24 hours was 1,486,447 units, with a notional turnover of PLN 540,426. Key support appears to be consolidating around 3.654–3.655, while resistance is forming at 3.660–3.661. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged after the 19:30 ET candle, suggesting possible near-term buying pressure.

Technical Indicators and Patterns

The 15-minute MACD line crossed above the signal line in the late evening, signaling a short-term bullish momentum shift. RSI remained centered near 50, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion in the evening hours, with the price hovering near the upper band during the 18:30–19:15 ET window. A doji formed at 20:45 ET, hinting at indecision after a brief rally.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked significantly during the 18:30–20:00 ET window, coinciding with a move toward 3.663. The highest volume (93,676 units) occurred during the 17:30 ET candle, when the price surged from 3.649 to 3.656. Turnover increased in line with the price action, showing no divergence. Late-night trading saw a pullback in volume but remained above the 24-hour average, confirming continued interest despite the price consolidation.

Volatility and Fibonacci Implications

Bollinger Band width expanded moderately in the late afternoon, reflecting rising volatility. The 3.660 level coincided with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous 15-minute swing, and the price briefly tested this level before retreating. The 61.8% Fibonacci level sits at 3.656 and appears to have provided support during the early morning hours, suggesting it may act as a key area in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern formation above the 20-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed below the 15-minute Bollinger Band lower band. The target is set at the next Fibonacci level, either at 3.660 or 3.663. Given the current RSI and MACD alignment, the strategy could be optimized to trigger entries after confirmed breakouts from 3.656. Testing this hypothesis with historical 15-minute data would help assess its viability in a low-volatility environment.