Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) - 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-14

• Price climbed from 3.696 to 3.710 before consolidating near 3.705, suggesting potential bearish exhaustion.
• Volume increased steadily after 07:00 ET, supporting price action and confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI surged above 70 and MACD crossed into positive territory, signaling overbought conditions and potential pullback risk.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, reflecting higher volatility, with price hovering near the upper band.
• Recent Fibonacci levels indicate 3.706 as a key resistance and 3.701 as potential support for the next 24 hours.

The 24-hour period for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) began at 3.696 and closed at 3.708 by 12:00 ET, with a high of 3.710 and a low of 3.689. Total volume was approximately 1.94 million units, translating to a notional turnover of roughly 6.82 million PLN. Price action reflected a steady rise and consolidation after early morning strength, with key levels and momentum indicators suggesting a possible near-term correction.

The 15-minute chart shows a strong bullish bias, with 20- and 50-period moving averages converging upward and price holding above both. A bullish breakout occurred just before 07:00 ET, followed by a series of higher highs and lower lows confirming a trending structure. Notable patterns include a morning star at 3.701 and a bullish harami at 3.707, indicating possible short-term pullbacks before resuming the upward move. The price is currently near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 3.689–3.710 swing, suggesting a potential continuation if 3.701 holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

An event-based backtest of RSI > 70 (overbought) signals for USDC/PLN from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-14 identified 63 overbought events. Short-term returns (1–5 days) were slightly negative, with win rates under 20%, and 30-day returns also showed no clear advantage over a flat benchmark. These results imply that a standalone RSI > 70 strategy for fading overbought levels in USDC/PLN lacks a reliable edge. Traders may improve outcomes by combining RSI with tighter time frames (e.g., fading within 1–2 hours of the signal) or overlaying volatility and volume filters to avoid false breakouts. Further analysis of thresholds (e.g., RSI > 80) or multi-factor approaches may be warranted for more robust trading models.