Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) – 2025-10-30

• Price rose sharply from 3.637 to 3.677, with heavy volume in the final 6 hours.
• Momentum indicators showed bullish divergence before the close, suggesting continued strength.
• Volatility expanded significantly during a 15-minute candle with a 3.656 high and 3.638 low.
• RSI crossed into overbought territory near 70 as price approached resistance.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, indicating a breakout potential on the upper band.

The USDC/Zloty pair (USDCPLN) opened at 3.639 on October 29 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.677 by 12:00 ET on October 30, reaching a high of 3.677 and a low of 3.637. The 24-hour volume was 1,767,246.0 USDC, with a total notional turnover of approximately PLN 6,432,356.7 (calculated using average prices). The price closed 1.04% higher on the day, with strong volume accumulation in the final 6 hours of the session.

The structure of the price action showed a clear bullish reversal from the 3.638-3.644 range, with the price surging above key resistance at 3.656 by late evening. A significant bullish engulfing pattern formed during the 19:30–19:45 ET candle, confirming the shift in sentiment. The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart were bullish, with the 50 SMA crossing above the 20 SMA in the morning, signaling short-term strength. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200 SMAs were aligned with the trend, reinforcing the continuation of the bullish bias.

MACD and RSI Indicators

The MACD line remained above the signal line for most of the session, forming positive divergences as the price made higher highs. The histogram showed increasing bullish momentum in the final 4 hours of trading, aligning with the volume increase. The RSI reached 71 by 11:45 ET, indicating overbought territory and suggesting a potential pause or consolidation before a continuation. However, the price did not retrace significantly, indicating strong buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands expanded after 18:45 ET, with the price touching the upper band for the first time around 20:45 ET, indicating a potential breakout. The bands remained wide for most of the session, suggesting high volatility and a lack of consolidation. The 20-period Bollinger Band width showed a 12% increase from the prior 24 hours, reinforcing the elevated volatility.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked significantly in the final 4 hours, with the 15:30–15:45 ET candle showing a 34,593 USDC volume and a 3.672–3.677 range, the largest price movement of the session. The notional turnover for that candle was approximately PLN 126,900. The volume profile was skewed to the right, with a cumulative volume of 794,816 USDC traded in the last 6 hours. Notably, there was no divergence between volume and price, as both metrics moved in sync, indicating genuine bullish momentum.

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (3.656) was tested and broken during the session, with the price closing above the 61.8% level (3.667) in the final 15 minutes. This reinforced the bullish thesis and suggested that the next target might be the 78.6% level at approximately 3.683. On a daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the recent low to high was at 3.656, which acted as a pivotal support-turned-resistance level.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may see the price testing the upper Bollinger Band again, with potential for a breakout above 3.677 if buying momentum remains strong. The RSI is expected to consolidate above 60, indicating continued bullish bias. However, a pullback to the 50 SMA at 3.663 could be a key test for sustainability.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described hinges on identifying and trading bullish engulfing patterns in the USDC/Zloty pair (USDCPLN) over the 2022–2025 period. However, the pattern-detection process failed to find any valid bullish engulfing events, suggesting either an overly strict definition or a lack of relevant patterns in this specific data. A tighter engulfing body-to-range ratio may have excluded potential signals. Relaxing this threshold or including pre-filtering rules—such as filtering for volume spikes or RSI divergence—might yield more candidates.

Alternatively, testing the same strategy on another high-volume stablecoin or a broader watchlist (e.g., USDT/PLN, DAI/PLN) could prove more fruitful. Manual inspection of select dates for candle structure and volume behavior would also help confirm whether the pattern detection logic requires recalibration. Once these adjustments are made, a full backtest could be run to evaluate the robustness of the strategy.