Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) as of 2025-10-26

• Price drifted lower amid declining momentum with bearish bias forming after key support levels broke.
• Volume increased in the late session, but failed to confirm any bullish reversal, suggesting weak buyer interest.
• Volatility expanded in the 24-hour period, with price swinging between 3.64 and 3.652, testing prior levels multiple times.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum with no clear overbought conditions, indicating downward pressure could continue.
• Fibonacci retracements at 3.645 and 3.648 were key in the late session, acting as temporary barriers before the final close.

24-Hour Summary and Price Action

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-26, USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) opened at 3.651 and traded in a tight range before drifting lower. The 24-hour period saw a high of 3.652 and a low of 3.64, with the final close at 3.644. Total volume amounted to approximately 656,492 units, with a notional turnover of around 2,371,140 Zloty. Price action was bearish, with sellers dominating as key support levels were tested and broken.

Structure & Formations

The price pattern over the last 24 hours showed a bearish consolidation phase, particularly from 19:00 to 03:00 ET, where a series of inside bars formed below 3.65. A small bearish engulfing pattern was visible around 00:45 ET, signaling a potential short-term reversal. The formation failed to gain enough traction, and price continued its descent. A doji appeared near 03:30 ET, suggesting indecision and possible reversal near the 3.645 Fibonacci level. Key resistance appears to be around 3.65 and 3.652, while support has now shifted to 3.64 and 3.638 levels.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both below the current price, indicating bearish bias. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period, signaling a potential short-term bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was above the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term sideways to slightly bullish bias, though it was overshadowed by the recent bearish momentum. The MACD was negative and trending lower, reinforcing the bearish tone. RSI fell into oversold territory in the late session, but failed to generate any significant bounce, indicating that selling pressure remained intact.

Volatility, Bollinger Bands, and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion in volatility, particularly after 20:00 ET as price moved lower. Price spent much of the session near the lower band, which acted as a temporary floor. A contraction in bandwidth was observed between 04:00 and 07:00 ET, indicating a potential low-volatility setup that ended with a break below the lower band. Fibonacci retracement levels were key in the late session, with the 61.8% level at 3.645 and the 38.2% at 3.648 offering temporary resistance. Price broke below 3.64 in the early hours, suggesting that the next significant support may be around 3.635.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent price behavior suggests a bearish continuation could be plausible if key supports hold. A potential backtest strategy could include short positions triggered on a break below the 3.64 level with stops above the 3.648 Fibonacci resistance. Given the RSI dipping into oversold territory without a bounce, a bearish momentum-based strategy could be evaluated. If historical data for USDCPLN shows that RSI < 30 has historically led to further declines in this pair, it could justify a similar approach. However, the lack of a confirmed reversal pattern and weak volume suggests caution in implementing aggressive short positions without additional confirmation.