Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) – 2025-10-11

• Price fluctuated within a tight range during early hours before a sharp 15-minute rally pushed USDC/Zloty to 3.8400.
• Volatility expanded significantly post 22:00 ET, with a 15-minute candle closing at 3.828 after opening at 3.722.
• A key consolidation phase followed, retreating toward 3.7500 with mixed candlestick formations.
• RSI and MACD showed divergence during the peak, suggesting potential exhaustion in the upward thrust.
• Final 24-hour volume was robust, with 4.6 million USDC traded and turnover reaching 17.1 million PLN.

The 24-hour session for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) opened at 3.671 on October 10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.752 on October 11 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 3.8400 and a low of 3.671. The pair traded a total volume of 4,640,615 USDC and generated a turnover of 17,148,362.50 PLN, indicating moderate to high trading interest. The price action was characterized by a sharp mid-session surge followed by a retracement, with mixed momentum signals suggesting caution ahead.

Structure & Formations

The price moved within a tight range during the early morning hours, with a consistent high-low range between 3.671 and 3.674. This consolidation gave way to a sharp upward thrust beginning at 22:00 ET, where the pair surged from 3.722 to 3.8400 in one 15-minute candle. The move was followed by a strong bearish correction, with the price declining by nearly 16% to close at 3.752. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 00:15 ET as the candle opened at 3.732 and closed at 3.700. A series of doji formed around 04:00–06:00 ET, signaling indecision and potential exhaustion in both the bullish and bearish sides.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages diverged during the early hours, with the 20-line crossing above the 50-line briefly during the upward thrust. The 50-period line then moved below the 20-line during the subsequent correction, forming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the price closed above the 50-period and 100-period moving averages but remained below the 200-period line. This suggests a potential short-term correction within a broader sideways to slightly bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line surged during the upward move, peaking near 0.10 before sharply declining as the price corrected. The signal line crossed the MACD line from above during the correction, forming a bearish crossover. The RSI reached overbought territory near 80 during the 22:00 ET rally but quickly dropped below 50 as the price declined, entering oversold territory around 04:00 ET. This divergence between price and momentum indicators suggests a potential reversal or consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant contraction in the early hours of the session before expanding during the price spike at 22:00 ET. The price moved well above the upper band during the surge, indicating heightened volatility. Following the correction, the price moved closer to the middle band and briefly touched the lower band during the 04:00–06:00 ET consolidation. This suggests the market is stabilizing after a period of intense volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 22:00 ET rally, with a 15-minute candle showing a volume of 688,721 USDC traded. This was the largest single candle in the 24-hour period, with the corresponding turnover reaching nearly 2.6 million PLN. Following this, volume dropped during the consolidation phase, though remained above average. A divergence between price and volume was observed around 05:00–06:00 ET, where the price moved higher while volume declined, suggesting weaker follow-through in the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 22:00–00:00 ET move, the 38.2% level at 3.792 and the 61.8% level at 3.739 were key reference points. The price found support at the 61.8% level and bounced slightly, but failed to reclaim the 38.2% level. For the daily chart, the 61.8% level at 3.770 and 38.2% at 3.730 also served as important psychological levels during the consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves using a combination of MACD crossovers and Fibonacci retracement levels as entry signals, with stop-loss and take-profit levels set using Bollinger Bands and key support/resistance levels. This approach could be tested by initiating long positions on MACD line crossing above the signal line during the 22:00 ET spike, with a stop-loss just below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 3.739 and a take-profit at the upper Bollinger Band. Alternatively, short positions could be triggered during the bearish crossover and consolidation phase, with stops just above the 38.2% retracement at 3.792. Given the divergence seen in the final hours of the session, this strategy may benefit from incorporating RSI divergence as a confirmation signal.