Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) on 2025-10-07

• Price tested key support near 3.579 before rebounding with bullish momentum in final hours.
• RSI and MACD show strengthening bullish momentum as price closed near 3.635.
• Volatility increased during midday pullback, but volume confirmed the reversal.
• Bollinger Bands show recent expansion, indicating higher uncertainty in price direction.
• Fibonacci levels suggest potential consolidation near 3.621 and 3.633.

The USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) pair opened at 3.618 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.635 by the same time the next day. The price reached a high of 3.638 and a low of 3.579 within the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to 3,017,863.0 units, while the estimated notional turnover reached PLN 10,527,224.0 (calculated using average closing price of 3.623).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a key support level at 3.579, where the price found a floor during a sharp midday sell-off. A large bearish candle with a long lower wick at 21:15 ET signaled a rejection of that level. Later in the session, a bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 09:30–09:45 ET, confirming a strong reversal. A doji formed at 04:30 ET, suggesting indecision amid a slight pullback.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended upward by the close, with the 20-period above the 50-period, suggesting a bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sat just below the 200-period MA, indicating a potential long-term trend change in favor of bulls. The RSI crossed above 50 and remained in the mid-50s, while the MACD showed a positive divergence in the final hours, reinforcing bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded during the midday pullback, with price falling near the lower band at 3.579 before reversing sharply. By late morning, volatility contracted, and price settled between the middle and upper bands, indicating a tightening range before the final bullish breakout.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp rebound from 3.579 to 3.635, especially in the 09:30–10:30 ET period, where average trade size and notional value increased by over 50%. A divergence appeared in the 04:00–04:30 ET window, where price declined slightly while volume remained low, signaling bearish hesitation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 24-hour range from 3.579 to 3.638, the 38.2% (3.613) and 61.8% (3.625) levels acted as key support/resistance. A short-term bullish move off the 3.613 level was confirmed by volume and candlestick patterns.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy focuses on capturing short-term bullish reversals off key support levels using a combination of RSI divergence, volume confirmation, and candlestick formations. Given the 2025-10-07 session, the setup at 3.579—marked by a large bearish candle followed by a doji and confirmed by rising RSI and MACD—aligns with the strategy's criteria for a potential long entry. A similar approach could be tested at the 3.625 Fibonacci level in the next 24-hour period, with stop-loss placement slightly below 3.623.

Outlook and Risk Consideration

Looking ahead, the pair appears to have the momentum to test 3.640–3.645, with a potential pullback to the 3.625–3.633 range as a high-probability consolidation zone. However, a drop below 3.621 could re-ignite bearish sentiment. Investors should monitor order flow at 3.631 and watch for any divergence in RSI and volume during the next 24 hours.