Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) on 2025-09-25

• The pair opened at 3.639 and closed at 3.65, with a daily high of 3.65 and a low of 3.623.
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern near the 3.63–3.64 level, suggesting potential upward momentum.
• Volume spiked during the late afternoon and early evening, supporting the break above 3.64.
• RSI reached overbought territory at 68, indicating potential for a pullback or consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the final 4–5 hours of the day, hinting at an impending breakout.

The USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) pair opened at 3.639 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.65 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 3.623 to 3.65, with total volume of 721,295.0 and turnover of 2,609,848.2 PLN. The pair showed a clear upward bias, especially in the final hours of the session.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bullish engulfing pattern around 3.639–3.640, indicating buying pressure. A doji appeared at 3.638, suggesting indecision before the rally. Resistance levels emerged at 3.640 and 3.645, with a stronger barrier forming at 3.65. Support levels at 3.637 and 3.635 appear significant, especially as the price tested these areas multiple times during the day.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above the price in the late hours of the session, reinforcing the bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is near 3.638 and the 200-period MA near 3.636, suggesting the pair may find near-term support at the 50-MA if it retraces.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line late afternoon, confirming a bullish crossover. The histogram widened as the day progressed, showing growing momentum. The RSI reached 68–69 in the final hours, nearing overbought territory, which could signal a short-term pullback, though the upward trend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands constricted between 3.636 and 3.640 from late afternoon to early evening, followed by a breakout to the upper band as the price rallied to 3.65. The price remains near the upper band, suggesting continued volatility and potential continuation of the trend if key resistance at 3.65 is held.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the late afternoon and evening, with the largest 15-minute volume spike reaching 46,972.0 at 13:00 ET, coinciding with a breakout above 3.643. Turnover and volume are in strong alignment, indicating conviction in the upward move. No significant divergence was observed between price and volume, reinforcing the strength of the trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 3.623–3.650 swing, the key retracement levels are 3.641 (61.8%) and 3.639 (50%). The price tested the 50% level during the session and rebounded. A break above 3.650 could target the next Fibonacci extension at 3.665.

Backtest Hypothesis

The given backtest strategy could be applied to this pair by entering long positions on bullish engulfing patterns confirmed by MACD and RSI divergence, especially when volume surges. Short-term targets near 3.645 and 3.650 could serve as profit-taking levels, while the 3.637 level acts as a key stop-loss area. Given the recent volume confirmation and lack of divergence, this setup may offer a high-probability trade in favor of the bullish trend.