Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) as of 2025-09-18

• USDC/Zloty closed near session highs on strong bullish momentum late into the day.
• Key resistance tested and held at 3.600–3.604 as buyers stepped in during early AM ET.
• Volatility spiked 21% from 3.580 to 3.614, driven by increased volume after 13:30 ET.
• RSI reached 68, suggesting overbought conditions, with MACD showing bullish divergence.
• A potential bullish breakout pattern formed above 3.600, with a target near 3.614.

The 24-hour session for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) began at 3.583 and closed at 3.610, reaching a high of 3.614 and a low of 3.569. Total volume for the period was 454,859.0 units, with a notional turnover of 1,560,673.00 PLN. Price saw a late-day rally from 3.590–3.610, with key resistance levels holding around 3.600 and 3.604.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern near 3.600–3.602 between 05:00 and 05:45 ET, indicating a shift in momentum. A higher high and higher low pattern emerged in the late morning, suggesting strengthening buying pressure. A doji appeared at 3.590, signaling indecision before the breakout. Key support levels at 3.585 and 3.590 appear robust, while resistance at 3.600 and 3.614 held during the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, confirming a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period MAs, indicating a positive intermediate trend. Price is currently above both the 20- and 50-period MAs, reinforcing a potential continuation of the rally.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line moved above the signal line, with a histogram expansion at 3.600–3.610, suggesting bullish momentum. The RSI reached 68, indicating near-overbought conditions but still within acceptable limits. No bearish divergence was observed, and the indicators are aligned with the bullish price action.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly as price pushed above the upper band during the late morning, reaching a 2.1% expansion in band width. Price remained within the bands for most of the session but closed near the upper band at 3.610, indicating strong upside conviction. A contraction in bands may be expected following the breakout, possibly signaling a period of consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply after 13:30 ET, with a large candle forming at 3.612–3.602, closing at 3.602 on high volume (100,292 units). Turnover matched the volume increase, with no divergence observed. The final hour before the 12:00 ET close saw a 12% drop in volume, which may suggest profit-taking or a settling of positions.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, a key 61.8% retracement level at 3.596 was tested and held before the breakout. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement at 3.590 acted as a strong support level. Price is currently near the 78.6% retracement of the recent downtrend, which may serve as a potential area for consolidation or a pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a long position when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, and when the RSI is above 50 but below 65, indicating momentum is rising but not overbought. A stop-loss is placed below the most recent support level (3.590), and a take-profit target is set at the next resistance (3.614–3.615). Given today’s pattern and the alignment of indicators, this strategy would have been triggered late in the morning, yielding a short-term gain of ~0.25% before a potential consolidation phase.