Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) on 2025-09-13

• Price dipped to 3.613 before rebounding to 3.620, showing bearish pressure followed by a partial recovery.
• Volume surged at key support levels (3.614–3.615), indicating buying interest despite ongoing bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD showed weak bullish signals, with price near lower Bollinger Bands suggesting oversold conditions.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 3.617 and 3.613 acted as temporary pivots for price action.

The 24-hour trading window for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) opened at 3.626 on 2025-09-12 12:00 ET and closed at 3.618 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-13, with a high of 3.627 and a low of 3.613. Total volume traded reached 656,261 Zloty (PLN) with a notional turnover of 182,194 USDC.

Structure & Formations

Price encountered strong resistance near 3.627, failing to break above for most of the session. The 3.613–3.614 zone acted as a key support, with multiple bullish bounces. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed early in the session, followed by a doji near 3.614–3.615, signaling indecision and a possible reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA) is slightly above the 50-period SMA, but both are trending downward. This indicates bearish momentum in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is above the 100-period SMA, suggesting a more neutral to mildly bullish stance over the last few days.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the early morning hours, confirming bearish momentum. RSI has been in oversold territory for much of the 24-hour period, hovering near 30. While this may hint at a potential bounce, the low RSI levels need to be confirmed with a strong close above 3.619.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the session, with price frequently touching the lower Bollinger Band at 3.614. This suggests a period of consolidation and potential for a reversal or breakout. However, the price has yet to test the upper band, indicating a lack of bullish conviction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key support levels (3.614–3.615), with the largest single candle (58,157 Zloty) confirming the area’s importance. Notional turnover increased during the rebound, but price failed to break past the 3.620 level. Divergence between price and volume suggests the market may be running out of steam on the upside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels at 3.617 and 3.613 provided temporary support and resistance. Price rebounded off the 38.2% level at 3.617 before retracing lower. The 61.8% retracement at 3.613 appears to be a critical level for the next 24 hours, with a possible test of 3.619 if buyers step in.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish breakout of the 3.619 level, with a stop loss placed below 3.613. This would capitalize on the observed support/resistance structure and the RSI’s oversold condition. A short position might also be considered on a confirmed close below 3.613, with a target at 3.605 and a stop above 3.619. The strategy should be tested over multiple similar price patterns and adjusted for slippage and execution risk.