Market Overview for USDC/Zloty on 2025-10-23

• Price action remained tightly contained within a 3.645–3.652 range, with 3.65 appearing as key support.
• Momentum indicators signaled neutral to slightly oversold conditions, suggesting limited directional bias.
• Volume remained subdued during off-peak hours, with increased participation from 20:00 to 06:00 ET.
• A consolidation pattern emerged, with bearish and bullish candles balancing influence.
• Bollinger Bands constricted mid-session before a late-night volatility rebound.

The USDC/Zloty pair, trading under the ticker USDCPLN, opened at 3.647 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 3.655 before consolidating to a close of 3.65 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 925,273.0 units, with notional turnover reflecting consistent trading pressure during overnight hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the price action has shown limited directional momentum. A range-bound structure has developed between 3.645 and 3.652, with 3.65 emerging as a key psychological level of support. The formation of small bearish and bullish bodies suggests an ongoing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers without a definitive breakout. This consolidation pattern could potentially give rise to a breakout or a continuation of range trading.

Structure & Formations

The most notable formations include a few bullish and bearish engulfing patterns, particularly between 20:00 and 06:00 ET, as well as a doji near 3.648. The 3.65 level has been tested multiple times, showing resilience from buyers, especially during the early morning hours. The price appears to have established a short-term equilibrium in this range, but the presence of key candlestick patterns suggests the potential for a breakout or reversal.

Moving Averages & MACD/RSI

Using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, the price has been oscillating slightly above the 20-period MA while staying just below the 50-period MA. This suggests a tentative bullish bias, though it is not yet significant enough to confirm a trend. The MACD has been hovering around the zero line, showing no strong bullish or bearish momentum. The RSI has moved into oversold territory during the overnight session, suggesting that a short-term rebound may be possible.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands have shown a period of contraction during midday hours, followed by a late-night expansion. The price spent most of the day near the middle band, suggesting neutral volatility. As the bands widened, the price tested the upper and lower boundaries, indicating increased volatility and potential breakout opportunities. The recent volatility expansion suggests traders are preparing for either a continuation of the range or a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has been relatively consistent throughout the 24-hour period, with noticeable spikes during the late-night and early-morning sessions (20:00–06:00 ET). These spikes coincided with key price movements around the 3.65 level. Notional turnover also rose during this time, confirming the increased interest in the pair. There was no significant divergence between price and volume, suggesting that the consolidation is likely to continue until a breakout or breakdown occurs.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to recent 15-minute swings shows that the price has spent much of the time near the 3.648 (38.2%) and 3.65 (61.8%) levels. These retracement levels appear to have acted as dynamic supports and resistances. The 61.8% level at 3.65 is especially critical for the next 24 hours, as a break above this could trigger a move toward the 3.655–3.66 range, while a break below could see a test of 3.645–3.643.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent consolidation and formation of key candlestick patterns provide a compelling foundation for testing a pattern-based trading strategy. A backtest of the “Bullish Engulfing” pattern on the USDC/Zloty pair could yield valuable insights into its effectiveness in this relatively stable pair. To proceed, it is essential to clarify the correct ticker symbol for the price series—whether it is the standard USD/PLN rate or the more precise USDC/PLN rate (i.e., USDCPLN). Once confirmed, the process can include pulling a daily price series from 2022-01-01 to today, detecting all instances of the Bullish Engulfing pattern, and constructing a 3-day long-only strategy. The resulting performance metrics—returns, hit ratio, and maximum drawdown—will be instrumental in assessing the strategy’s viability for this pair.