Market Overview for USDC/Zloty on 2025-10-09

• Price declined early before forming a bearish trend, finding support near 3.636.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with price reaching a 24-hour high of 3.674 near ET 15:45.
• RSI showed bearish momentum exhaustion near 30, suggesting potential short-term rebound.
• Volume surged during the rebound off 3.636, confirming the short-covering pattern.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly, indicating increasing market uncertainty ahead.

The USDC/Zloty pair, traded under the ticker symbol USDCPLN, opened at 3.659 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.674 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of 3.674 and a low of 3.636, with total traded volume of approximately 1,463,739 and turnover of 4,845,549.03 PLN.

The price action revealed a bearish bias early in the session, with a strong decline from 3.66 to 3.636. A key support level emerged around 3.636, where a bullish reversal pattern was observed. This level coincided with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the earlier bearish move. The 15-minute 20 EMA moved lower, indicating a short-term bearish tilt, while the 50 EMA crossed below it, reinforcing the downward momentum.

MACD remained bearish throughout much of the session, though it showed a narrowing histogram as the price approached the 3.636 support level, hinting at a potential shift in momentum. The RSI, after dropping below 30, signaled an oversold condition and suggested a short-term bounce. However, it failed to close above 40, indicating limited upside conviction. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 14:00–16:00 ET period, reflecting heightened volatility and uncertainty in the market.

Volume spiked during the price rebound off 3.636, reaching a 15-minute high of 54,616 at the session’s close. This volume surge supported the move to 3.674, suggesting short-term buyers entered the market. The notional turnover aligned with the volume spike, reinforcing the validity of the bullish rebound. However, price closed near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that the move could face resistance ahead.

The USDC/Zloty pair appears poised for a potential short-term reversal after a bearish consolidation. A breakout above the 3.674 high could signal renewed bullish momentum, but this should be confirmed by closing above the 3.66–3.665 resistance cluster. Traders should remain cautious, as a retest of the 3.636 support level could trigger another dip if the upward move fails.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for USDC/Zloty could involve entering long positions when price rebounds from the 61.8% Fibonacci level (3.636) with confirmation from a bullish candlestick and volume expansion. The target could be set at 3.665, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a stop-loss placed slightly below 3.630. This approach capitalizes on short-term oversold conditions and volume confirmation. A trailing stop could be used as the price moves past 3.65, aiming to capture further momentum while managing risk exposure.