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Summary
• Price remained tightly range-bound near 1.0003–1.0004, with minimal directional bias.
• Volatility expanded during overnight hours before contracting into a narrow consolidation.
• Volume surged above 100 million during peak hours but failed to confirm strong momentum.
• RSI and MACD showed muted divergence, suggesting lack of conviction in either direction.
• No significant Fibonacci retracement levels were breached, reinforcing the neutral tone.
At 12:00 ET – 1, USDC/Tether (USDCUSDT) opened at 1.0001 and closed at 1.0003 by 12:00 ET today. The 24-hour high was 1.0005, while the low was 1.0001. Total volume reached 495.6 million, with a notional turnover of $3.82B.
Price Action and Structure
The 24-hour period displayed a narrow trading range, with price oscillating between 1.0001 and 1.0005. A key resistance appeared near 1.0005, where multiple attempts to break higher failed. Conversely, 1.0003 acted as a strong support, with the price repeatedly finding buyers in that range. A small bullish engulfing pattern appeared briefly near the close, but it lacked follow-through. The 5-minute chart showed no clear fractal structure, suggesting a lack of decisive participation from larger market participants.
Momentum and Indicators
Both MACD and RSI remained flat throughout the session, with RSI hovering just above 50 for most of the day. A brief overbought reading to 58 occurred at peak hours but did not last. MACD remained near zero with no divergence to suggest momentum change. The 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 5-minute chart were closely aligned, reinforcing the sideways bias.
Volatility and Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded during the overnight hours, with the 20-period Bollinger Band width reaching its widest point just before 04:00 ET. The price remained mostly within the bands, with a few minor touch-ups near the upper and lower bounds. A contraction in the band width started at 10:00 ET, indicating a potential consolidation period ahead.
Volume and Turnover
Volume spiked above 100 million during the early morning hours but failed to drive price beyond key resistance. The largest volume surge occurred at 10:00 ET, coinciding with a failed test of 1.0005. Turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with the highest notional value occurring around the same time. No clear price-volume divergence was observed, suggesting that increased participation was not directional.
Fibonacci Retracements
Fibonacci retracements drawn from the key 1.0001 to 1.0005 swing showed 1.0004 as a 61.8% level, which the price briefly tested but failed to close above. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the prior major range aligned with the current consolidation area, reinforcing the neutral setup.
The market appears to be in a state of indecision, with no clear catalyst driving price direction. A breakout above 1.0005 or a breakdown below 1.0003 could signal the next move, but caution is warranted as both levels have shown resistance and support multiple times. Investors should monitor volume and order flow for signs of directional intent in the coming 24 hours.
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