Market Overview: USDC/Tether 24-Hour Price Action and Technical Analysis

Summary
• Price remains tightly pegged with a 0.0001 net range, showing minimal deviation.
• Volume surged during late ET hours, with turnover peaking in the 16:00–19:00 ET window.
• RSI signals neutral momentum, with no clear overbought or oversold triggers.
• Volatility remains suppressed, with Bollinger Bands showing minimal expansion.
• No strong candlestick patterns emerged, with indecision dominating the hourly chart.

The USDC/Tether (USDCUSDT) pair opened at 1.0 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 1.0004 and a low of 0.9999 before closing at 1.0001 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 24-hour window was approximately 1.18 billion USDT, while notional turnover came to around $1.00 billion. Price remained in a tight, near-peg range, with only minor fluctuations observed.

Structure & Formations

Price action was largely confined to a 0.0005 range throughout the day, with the 1.0001 level acting as a central pivot. Several indecisive doji and narrow-range candles formed in the evening and overnight hours, signaling uncertainty and a lack of directional bias. No clear support or resistance levels emerged, but the 0.9999 and 1.0004 levels marked the day’s extremes.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages closely tracked one another, indicating a low-trend, consolidative environment. The 50-period average remained just below the 1.0000 level, suggesting mild bullish pressure in the final hours of the session. On the daily chart, longer-term averages (100/200-day) remained stable and aligned with the peg.

MACD & RSI

The RSI oscillated between 45 and 55 throughout the day, indicating a neutral to mildly bullish tone without strong momentum. MACD remained flat with no clear divergence, suggesting traders remained cautious. While RSI did not dip into oversold territory (<30), it did not approach overbought levels either, reinforcing the sideways bias.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands remained narrowly contracted, with price trading near the midline for much of the session. The 20-period band width showed minimal expansion, confirming the lack of volatility. Price frequently touched the upper band in the last two hours of the session but failed to close above it, indicating limited upside conviction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 16:00–20:00 ET window, with the heaviest turnover observed around the 1.0001–1.0003 range. While the total volume was substantial, it did not trigger a breakout from the 1.0001 pivot, signaling a lack of conviction in any direction. Turnover was most concentrated in the late ET hours, coinciding with a temporary retest of the 1.0004 high.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 0.9999–1.0004 swing, the 61.8% level fell at 1.0003, which was briefly tested in the final hour but not held. No clear retracement support was observed below 1.0001, and price failed to retest the 38.2% level at 1.0002 during consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the flat RSI readings and lack of overbought/oversold divergence, the RSI-based backtesting strategy outlined would likely have remained inactive over the past 24 hours. The absence of RSI falling below 30 (or any deeper oversold level) means no buy signals would have been triggered. For a meaningful test of the strategy, the look-back period and oversold level should be defined—common choices include RSI-14 and an oversold level of 30 or 25. Exit rules should also be clarified, such as holding until RSI rises above 50 or using a fixed holding period.