Market Overview: Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) – Volatility, Divergence, and Key Levels

• Four/USDC traded down 13.4% over the last 24 hours amid a volatile 15-minute selloff from $1.071 to $0.9496.
• Momentum shifted from overbought to oversold with RSI hitting 28 and MACD showing bearish divergence.
• Volatility spiked as the pair expanded from $1.01 to $1.16 before reversing, with peak turnover at $180k.
• Key support now appears at $0.9565 and $0.9383, while resistance is likely at $0.973 and $0.985.
• Fibonacci retracements align with the 61.8% level at ~$0.987, suggesting a potential reversal zone ahead.

The FORMUSDC pair opened at $1.0211 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of $1.16 before reversing and closing at $0.9728 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-14. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 1,178,565.3 and a notional turnover of approximately $118,225 (calculated as volume × average price). The price action suggests aggressive buying followed by a reversal, with bearish momentum intensifying in the final hours.

Structure and formations reveal a strong bearish bias from $1.16, with a key bearish engulfing pattern forming at $1.14–$1.16. A long lower shadow at $1.071–$0.9496 indicates rejection at critical support levels. A potential pivot support is forming at $0.9565, with a doji appearing at that level, hinting at indecision. Resistance is likely at $0.973 and $0.985, where prior volume and reversal patterns are evident.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover, with the 20-period MA below the 50-period MA. On the daily chart, a similar bearish bias is present, with the 50-period MA below the 200-period MA, signaling a medium-term bearish trend. The price is currently below both key moving averages, reinforcing the downward bias.

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RSI has collapsed from overbought levels above 80 to an oversold reading of 28, suggesting a potential bounce. However, bearish divergence is evident, with price making lower highs while RSI fails to do so, raising concerns about the sustainability of any rally. MACD shows a bearish cross below the signal line, with negative momentum building in the final hours of the 24-hour window. Bollinger Bands show a sharp contraction in volatility at $1.16–$1.19, followed by a violent break lower and a wide expansion downward, consistent with a breakout to the downside. Price is currently near the lower band, suggesting it may find support or re-test the band.

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Fibonacci retracements drawn from the recent swing high at $1.16 to the swing low at $0.9496 show key levels at 61.8% (~$0.987), 50% ($0.968), and 38.2% ($0.994). The 61.8% level coincides with a prior area of congestion and could act as a short-term reversal zone if buyers re-enter. Volume confirms this, with higher buying activity around $0.95–$0.975. A potential re-test of $0.973–$0.985 could be on the cards, but a break below $0.9496 would target $0.9383 next.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in RSI and the bearish crossover in MACD, a backtesting strategy could target short positions when RSI crosses below 30 and MACD shows a bearish cross. For FORMUSDC, this would align with the late evening sell-off from $1.07 to $0.9496. To approximate short-side performance, inverting long returns (i.e., treating price drops as gains) is a reasonable approach if no inverse index exists. This would enable evaluation of the bearish bias identified in the technicals, particularly during periods of high volatility and volume spikes.

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