Market Overview for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) – October 27, 2025

• Four/USDC declined from a 24-hour high of 0.8163 to close near 0.7074 at 12:00 ET.
• Price formed bearish engulfing and inside bars in early ET hours, with bearish momentum.
• RSI approached oversold territory by the end of the period, suggesting potential rebound.
• Volatility remained low, with Bollinger Bands narrowing as price settled near the lower band.
• Turnover peaked at ~109,132.0 at 00:30 ET, coinciding with a sharp pullback to 0.7607.

At 12:00 ET on October 27, Four/USDC opened at 0.8046 and closed at 0.7074 after hitting a high of 0.8163 and a low of 0.7046. The 24-hour trading period saw a total volume of 1,650,794.6 and a notional turnover of $1,331,282.8. The price action reflected a broad bearish sentiment, with a sharp decline in the early hours followed by consolidation.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed multiple bearish patterns over the 24-hour window, including bearish engulfing candles during the 17:00–19:00 ET hours and inside bars in the 19:00–20:00 ET range. A key support level appears to have been established between 0.7046 and 0.7073, where the price found a floor after a prolonged bearish move. Resistance levels were breached during the late-night hours, with price failing to retest the 0.7809 level, indicating a lack of immediate bullish conviction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both showed bearish crossovers during the early part of the session. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA in the 16:00–17:00 ET timeframe, signaling a short-term bearish trend. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200-period moving averages remain bearish, with the 200DMA acting as a strong resistance level near 0.8000.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed below the signal line around 17:00–18:00 ET, confirming the bearish momentum. RSI approached 30 by the final hours of the session, indicating an oversold condition. However, the price remained near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting that while the RSI hints at potential rebound, a breakout above 0.7200 would be necessary to confirm bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained low throughout the session, with Bollinger Bands narrowing as the price settled near the lower band by the close. The narrowing suggests a potential for a reversal or breakout. If the price breaks above the upper band or sustains above 0.7300, it could indicate increased volatility and a shift in sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to a session high of ~109,132.0 at 00:30 ET, coinciding with a sharp decline to 0.7607. This volume spike confirmed the bearish move rather than contradicting it, reinforcing the bearish bias. A divergence appeared between price and volume in the late morning, with volume dropping despite a modest rebound in price. This could indicate waning buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the most recent 15-minute swing from 0.8129 to 0.7073, the key levels are at 0.7579 (38.2%) and 0.7366 (61.8%). The price has tested the 0.7366 level in the afternoon and appears to have bounced slightly, suggesting it may act as a short-term support. On the daily chart, the 0.7500 and 0.7700 levels remain critical for further directional guidance.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the RSI-14 reaching oversold levels near 30 in the final hours, a backtesting strategy that identifies RSI < 30 entries and holds for three days could be relevant to validate the potential for rebounds in this market. To proceed, we need confirmation on the correct ticker symbol recognized by mainstream data providers. If the symbol is indeed FORMUSDC, or if it is listed as FORMUSD or FORMUSDT on exchanges like Binance or KuCoin, we can source the RSI-14 data accordingly. Once confirmed, the backtest will be executed using a 3-day hold period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-27 to assess the strategy's viability under historical volatility and price action patterns.