Market Overview for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC): Mixed Momentum and Volatility

• FORMUSDC surged to 1.12 before retracing to 0.9542, indicating mixed sentiment and a potential near-term reversal.
• Volume spiked during the 14:15–14:30 ET window, confirming a key reversal but also highlighting distribution risks.
• RSI pushed above overbought (70) during the 10/13 surge but has since fallen below 50, signaling weakening momentum.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the move up, suggesting heightened volatility and a possible consolidation phase.
• Fibonacci retracements at 61.8% (0.96–0.97) and 38.2% (0.98–0.99) could define short-term support and resistance levels.

24-Hour Price Action and Volume

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13, Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) opened at 0.8747, surged to a high of 1.12, then retraced to a low of 0.9449 before closing at 0.9542. The total 24-hour volume reached 14,624,810.3 with a notional turnover of approximately $13.77 million (based on mid-price estimates). The price action reflects a strong upward impulse followed by profit-taking and a period of uncertainty.

Structure & Formations

The price action suggests a bullish impulse wave followed by a corrective phase. Key resistance levels appear to be clustering between 1.03 and 1.06, while support is forming at 0.95–0.97. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the 11:30–11:45 ET window, signaling potential exhaustion in the short-term rally. A doji at 11:15 ET also highlights indecision.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (EMA) crossed above the 50-period line during the 14:15–14:30 ET window, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. The MACD histogram expanded during the rally but has since contracted, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The daily chart shows the 50-day EMA crossing below the 200-day SMA, a bearish signal for longer-term investors.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

RSI reached overbought levels (above 70) during the 10:00–10:30 ET period and has since fallen below 50, signaling weakening momentum and a potential bearish correction. Bollinger Bands expanded during the upward move, with price bouncing off the upper band before retreating toward the midline. This suggests a consolidation phase could be forming, with volatility likely to contract over the next 24 hours.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

Volume surged during the 14:15–14:30 ET rally, confirming the move higher. However, subsequent volume has dropped significantly, indicating reduced buying pressure. A divergence between price and volume during the 11:00–11:45 ET time window suggests some distribution or profit-taking may have occurred. Turnover has also slowed in the last six hours, which could indicate a pause in aggressive trading.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 10/13 swing (0.8553 to 1.12), key levels are forming at 38.2% (0.98), 50% (0.985), and 61.8% (0.99). These levels could serve as potential support or resistance in the next 24–48 hours. On the daily chart, 61.8% of the prior downward leg is at 0.93–0.94, which may hold as a critical support if the pair retraces further.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate the recent price dynamics through a quantitative lens, a backtest using RSI-based signals is a logical next step. Given the current price action and RSI behavior, a backtesting strategy could be designed with an overbought threshold of 70 and an oversold threshold of 30. Signal logic would involve opening a position when RSI exceeds 70 and closing when it drops below 30. This approach is inverted from the traditional RSI strategy but aligns with the observed bearish momentum in the current market. Price execution would be based on daily closing prices to avoid slippage in fast-moving conditions. Incorporating stop-loss and take-profit rules would further refine risk management, though these are optional for initial testing.