Market Overview for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC)

• Four/USDC traded in a 24-hour range of $2.05–$2.1952, closing near intraday lows with bearish consolidation
• Key support tested around $2.1212 and $2.1059, with volume-based rejection observed near $2.1506–$2.1605
• RSI oversold territory approached, suggesting potential short-term bounce; Bollinger Bands widened, showing increased volatility
• Notable divergence in price and turnover between $2.1506–$2.1605, suggesting mixed sentiment
• 15-minute candlestick formations (engulfing, harami) indicate indecision, with no clear trend confirmed

Four/USDC opened at $2.1447 on 2025-09-15 12:00 ET, reached a high of $2.1952, a low of $2.05, and closed at $2.1496 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16. The 24-hour volume totaled 58,300.5 units, with a notional turnover of $124,332.52.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period exhibited a bearish consolidation pattern, with key support levels at $2.1212 and $2.1059 showing volume-based rejection. A strong bearish engulfing pattern appeared at $2.1342–$2.1212, while a bullish harami at $2.1447–$2.1422 suggested brief indecision. A doji at $2.1506–$2.1506 indicated a potential reversal signal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (2.145) and 50-period MA (2.148) showed a slight bearish crossover trend. On a daily scale, the 50-period MA is positioned slightly below the 100-period MA (2.147), with the 200-period MA providing a baseline near $2.143. The price closed below both 50 and 100 MA lines, indicating bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the late evening, confirming a bearish divergence. RSI approached the 30 level during the early morning hours (around $2.1286), indicating a potential oversold condition. However, the lack of a strong bounce suggests lingering bearish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, particularly in the 2.1506–2.1605 range, reflecting heightened volatility. The price closed below the 20-period lower band at $2.1496, suggesting potential for a mean reversion or further bearish movement if support breaks.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the early morning (2:00–3:00 AM ET), coinciding with a $2.1771 high. However, the price dropped sharply afterward without a corresponding increase in turnover, indicating a divergence that may suggest a failed breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2% at $2.146 and 61.8% at $2.142) were tested multiple times during the 15-minute swings. The price bounced off the 38.2% level twice, but failed to hold above $2.146, reinforcing bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy using a 20-period and 50-period moving average crossover on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI entering oversold territory (<30), may provide a short-term long setup. A stop-loss can be placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $2.142, with a target near the 38.2% level at $2.146. This setup aims to capture a potential mean reversion bounce following the recent bearish consolidation.