Market Overview for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC): 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Four/USDC traded lower overnight, closing 0.6% below its 24-hour high amid declining momentum.
• Volume spiked after midnight ET, but price failed to follow through, hinting at weakening buyer conviction.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.733–0.7383, with support now key at 0.7198–0.7214.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions by late morning, but without a clear reversal setup.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the early session, with price breaking below 0.725–0.7285 consolidation.

The pair Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) opened at 0.7291 on 2025-10-23 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.7037 on 2025-10-24 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.7464 and a low of 0.6598 during the period. Total 24-hour volume was 115,929.6, with notional turnover amounting to 68. The pair has shown a clear bearish trend, with price breaking below a key consolidation range and testing lower support levels.

Structure & Formations suggest a continuation of bearish bias. A notable bearish engulfing pattern was observed at the 0.733–0.7383 range, signaling a potential reversal or continuation depending on context. Key support levels appear at 0.7198–0.7214 and 0.7061–0.709, with a breakdown below these levels likely to extend the downward trajectory toward 0.68–0.6825. Resistance remains at 0.725–0.7285 for a near-term counterattack.

Moving Averages on the 15-minute chart indicate bearish momentum, with the 20-period and 50-period lines both sloping downward. On the daily chart, price is below both the 50 and 200-period lines, reinforcing the downtrend. The 100-period MA is not a strong factor over the 24-hour timeframe. The pair appears to be in a medium-term bear phase.

MACD and RSI analysis highlights a strong oversold signal by late morning, with RSI dipping below 30. However, this did not trigger a meaningful rebound, suggesting bearish exhaustion or lack of institutional buying. MACD remained negative, with the histogram showing a slight narrowing—potentially a prelude to a shallow rebound. However, without a clear divergence or bullish reversal pattern, this remains uncertain.

Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion overnight, with price reaching the lower band and bouncing slightly in the morning. The widening of the bands suggests increased volatility, which may persist if the pair continues to trade within a defined range. The current price of 0.7037 sits near the middle band, indicating a potential equilibrium point—though this is likely to break if a decisive move occurs.

Volume and turnover were significant in the early morning hours, particularly after midnight ET, when the pair dropped sharply. While volume spiked at key support levels, it failed to confirm a reversal, with price continuing to decline. A divergence between volume and price could indicate weak conviction in the current move. Turnover was uneven but showed a clear pattern of large-volume dips during the most significant price declines.

Fibonacci Retracements applied to the key 0.733–0.7383 swing show 61.8% at 0.724 and 38.2% at 0.731. The price dropped below the 61.8% level and now rests near 0.7061–0.709, which corresponds to a 23.6% retracement from the morning high. A rebound may find support at this level before testing 0.7198 again. For a broader context, daily Fibonacci levels also show bearish alignment with current price action.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the bearish setup and the overbought conditions observed during the early morning rebound, a potential backtesting strategy could be based on a short-entry RSI overbought signal and a close-on-RSI-50 exit. In this case, a short entry may have been triggered around 0.731–0.7383 when RSI crossed above 70, followed by a close as the indicator dipped below 50. The use of 15-minute RSI aligns with the fast-moving nature of this pair. While stop-loss and take-profit levels are not part of the standard rules, incorporating a 2% stop above the entry point or a 3% target below could refine the strategy for risk management. A full backtest would require applying these rules over a defined period—ideally with a consistent dataset of historical RSI and OHLCV for the FORMUSDC pair.