Market Overview for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) – 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Price dipped intraday to 1.01, but closed near the 24-hour high of 1.096
• Strong volume-driven rally in the last 6 hours suggests short-term bullish momentum
• RSI and MACD show positive divergence; volatility remains elevated
• On-chain volume spiked over $39k at key resistance near 1.0933
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating active price swings; price near upper band

FORMUSDC opened at 1.0684 (12:00 ET – 1) and traded as high as 1.096 before closing at 1.0466 (12:00 ET) today. Total volume reached 200,086.6 with a turnover of approximately $215,660, indicating a surge in activity. The pair displayed high volatility and a strong bullish bias in the latter half of the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

The daily price swing showed a clear bearish correction from 1.096 to 1.0302, followed by a sharp rebound. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged after the price hit 1.0302, signaling potential short-term reversal. A doji at 1.0547 suggested indecision, while strong volume at key support levels (1.0302, 1.01) and resistance (1.0615, 1.0933) highlighted key psychological levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period SMAs crossed bullish, indicating potential continuation. The daily 50/100/200 EMAs showed a bearish bias at the start but shifted towards a potential neutral-to-bullish bias as the price recovered. The 50-period daily SMA crossed above the 200-period line, suggesting a possible reversal in longer-term sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bullish crossover with positive histogram expansion during the last 6 hours, confirming rising momentum. RSI crossed above 50, reaching 62 by the close, indicating moderate bullish strength. No overbought conditions were observed, but RSI divergence was noted at key price levels, suggesting possible continuation of bullish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the last 12 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening from ~0.005 to ~0.015 range. The price closed near the upper band at 1.0466, indicating strong bullish momentum. A contraction phase earlier in the day at ~0.005 range suggested potential for breakouts, which materialized after the 1.0302 support level was tested.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highly concentrated between 1.0302 and 1.0933, with the largest volume spike at 1.0933 (15,450.0 traded). Turnover surged to $39,727 at that level, reinforcing the strength of the breakout. The volume profile also showed divergences at lower levels (e.g., 1.01), suggesting accumulation before the rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute swing included 38.2% at 1.0595 and 61.8% at 1.0414. The price stalled at 1.0595 and then broke through 1.0414, suggesting bearish exhaustion. Daily-level Fibonacci levels included 38.2% at 1.0642 and 61.8% at 1.0451; the latter was a critical support that held during the rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve long entries when RSI crosses above 50, supported by a bullish MACD crossover and price closing above the 20-period SMA. Short entries may be triggered on bearish divergences at overbought RSI levels or when price closes below key Fibonacci support levels. Stop-losses would be placed below key swing lows, while take-profit targets align with the next Fibonacci extension or Bollinger Band targets.