Market Overview for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price declined sharply after a brief recovery, with a 24-hour low of 1.3612 and close near 1.3881
• Strong bearish momentum seen in RSI and MACD, suggesting further downside potential
• Volatility spiked with a 50%+ move during the drop, but trading volume declined afterward
• Price appears to be testing major support levels around 1.36–1.38, with potential for a bounce or breakdown
• Short-term resistance is now at 1.40–1.42, where previous rejection was noted

Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) opened at 1.5115 on 2025-09-20 12:00 ET and traded as high as 1.5421 before plummeting to a 24-hour low of 1.3612. It closed at 1.3881 on 2025-09-21 12:00 ET. The total 15-minute OHLCV data over the period shows a total volume of 701,846.6 units and a notional turnover of approximately $1,045,980. The price action has been characterized by sharp declines and limited buying interest during the dip.

The 15-minute chart shows a significant bearish breakdown from resistance levels around 1.50–1.52, with several large bearish candles indicating strong pressure. A major bearish engulfing pattern formed at 1.518–1.5148, signaling a potential reversal from bullish to bearish. Additionally, a doji formed at 1.3666–1.3667, indicating indecision at the lower end of the move. Key support levels appear to be forming at 1.36–1.38, while resistance has shifted to 1.40–1.42.

MACD has turned strongly negative, with a bearish crossover and divergence between the histogram and price during the decline. RSI is currently in oversold territory but has not triggered a reversal signal, suggesting further downside could occur. Bollinger Bands show a wide expansion as volatility increased during the sell-off, with the current price trading near the lower band—indicating potential for either a bounce or continuation lower. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both bearish, reinforcing the downward trend.

Volume and notional turnover spiked during the sharp decline, particularly between 19:15 and 20:00 ET, when the price dropped from 1.5348 to 1.478. However, turnover decreased significantly after 20:45 ET, despite continued price weakness—this divergence may indicate fading bearish momentum. On the 200-period daily chart, the 50- and 200-day moving averages are bearish, and price is trading below both, with no immediate signs of a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis
Applying a backtesting strategy to this market structure could involve entering a short position at the close of the bearish engulfing pattern near 1.5148 with a stop-loss above the 1.5228 high. A take-profit could be set at the 1.38.2–1.40 zone, aligning with RSI and MACD divergence. The Fibonacci retracement of the 1.5109–1.5228 swing shows a 61.8% level at 1.5170, which might act as a re-entry trigger for shorters if the bounce fails. This setup would need a robust risk-to-reward ratio and should be validated with historical data before deployment.