Market Overview for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) - 24-Hour Analysis

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• Four/USDC opened at 1.9097 on 2025-09-17 and surged to 1.9904 before consolidating near 1.9715
• Price action shows strong bullish momentum with multiple higher highs and volume surges post 21:00 ET
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions, but strong volume supports continuation
• Volatility expanded after 19:45 ET with a breakout to 1.9660 and retests at 1.9310
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 1.9660 and 1.9513 are key psychological and support levels

Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) opened at 1.9097 on 2025-09-17 and surged to a high of 1.9904 by early morning before consolidating near 1.9715 at 07:15 ET. The pair closed at 1.9715 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18, up from the session open. Total volume amounted to 89,535.0, and notional turnover reached $173,038.00 during the 24-hour window.

The 15-minute chart reveals a clear bullish trend from 19:00 ET onwards, with a key breakout above the 1.9310 resistance followed by a retest and continuation. A strong engulfing candle at 2025-09-17 19:45 ET confirmed the breakout. The pair has since retested key support levels at 1.9310 and 1.9166, forming a bullish consolidation pattern. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending upward, reinforcing the bullish bias.

Bollinger Bands show increased volatility, with the upper band peaking at 1.976 and the lower band near 1.9221. Price has remained above the 20-period SMA and is now hovering near the upper band. MACD is in positive territory with a strong histogram, suggesting continued momentum. RSI reached overbought territory (75+), but the high volume confirms the strength of the move. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 1.892 to 1.9660 swing show key support at 1.9513 (38.2%) and 1.9382 (61.8%).

The price action suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend, with resistance at 1.9809 and support at 1.9660. However, a failure to hold above 1.9621 could trigger a short-term pullback. Investors should remain cautious as overbought conditions may invite profit-taking, especially if volume shows signs of tapering off in the next 24 hours.

A strong bullish trend is supported by increasing volume and multiple confirmatory candlestick patterns. The 1.9310 level is now a critical support zone, with a breakout above 1.9757 expected to target 1.9904–1.992.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed strategy for backtesting involves entering long positions on a breakout above the 1.9310 level, with a stop loss just below 1.9166 and a take profit at 1.9660. The strategy also incorporates a MACD crossover confirmation and RSI divergence to filter false breakouts. Given the recent price action and strong volume during the breakout phase, this approach could yield favorable risk-reward ratios. The key will be to time entries during low volatility consolidation periods before a breakout and to exit on signs of overbought RSI and diverging volume.