Market Overview for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) on 2025-10-25

• Four/USDC opened at 0.6826 and closed at 0.6819, with a 24-hour high of 0.7083 and a low of 0.667.
• A strong bullish breakout was observed between 17:30 and 18:00 ET, followed by consolidation and a sharp pullback in early trading.
• Volatility spiked during the 17:30–18:30 ET window, with RSI indicating overbought conditions before a reversal.
• Total volume reached 599,982.2 units, and turnover exceeded $407,980, confirming high engagement.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 0.7083, followed by a potential bullish reversal near 0.6819.

Price Action and Structure

Four/USDC opened at 0.6826 and closed at 0.6819, with a 24-hour high of 0.7083 and a low of 0.667. The price action exhibited a sharp upward move driven by volume during the 17:30–18:30 ET window, with a strong bullish impulse followed by a pullback. Key resistance appears to be forming around 0.7083, while immediate support is likely between 0.680 and 0.678. A bearish engulfing candle at the top of the move, followed by a bullish reversal at 0.6819, suggests that the market may be finding a short-term equilibrium.

Technical Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed during the 17:30–18:00 ET window, signaling a potential bullish shift. RSI spiked into overbought territory (above 70) during the rally but corrected into neutral territory as the price pulled back. MACD showed a positive divergence in the 17:30–18:00 ET period, reinforcing the strength of the move. Bollinger Bands widened during the breakout, indicating increased volatility, and the price settled near the upper band during the peak. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term bullish trend.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the 17:30–18:30 ET window, with a peak of 98,625.1 units and turnover reaching $67,310. This suggests strong participation during the bullish phase. However, in the last 6 hours, volume and turnover have declined, indicating reduced conviction in the move. Price and volume appear to be aligning during the breakout, but the recent pullback has been confirmed by declining turnover. A divergence between price and volume near 0.680 could suggest caution on the buy-side.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing high (0.7083) and low (0.667) shows key levels at 0.690 (38.2%) and 0.680 (61.8%). The current price is trading near the 61.8% level, suggesting a possible zone of interest for support or reversal. On the 15-minute chart, the price has bounced from the 61.8% level twice in the last 6 hours, which may signal a temporary equilibrium.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the overbought RSI behavior and strong volume during the breakout, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on RSI-based entry signals. By using RSI to detect overbought and oversold conditions and combining it with volume confirmation, traders could potentially filter higher-probability entries. For example, a signal to enter long could be triggered when RSI crosses above 70 (overbought) with a corresponding volume surge, as seen on 2025-10-25. A 5% take-profit target appears reasonable based on recent volatility levels.