Market Overview for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) – 2025-10-03

• The 24-hour chart shows a sharp early rally followed by a sharp sell-off, ending lower near key support.
• Volume spiked during the peak of the rally at 19:15 ET but has since tailed off, indicating waning momentum.
• RSI entered overbought territory during the peak before sharply declining, suggesting bearish reversal potential.
• Price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, hinting at bearish bias.
• Volatility surged with a strong Bollinger Band expansion during the peak before a rapid contraction.

At 12:00 ET−1 on October 2, Four/USDC opened at 1.0448, reached a high of 1.3017 during the peak on October 3, and closed at 1.1365 at 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour volume amounted to 1,147,250.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,206,216.9 (based on average price of 1.05). The market showed pronounced swings, with a key high forming at 1.3017 before a steep drop to 1.1241.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a strong bearish continuation pattern following a short-lived bullish engulfing pattern at 19:15 ET when the price surged from 1.0683 to 1.1174. However, this failed to hold, and the price retested and broke below key support at 1.1312 during the overnight session. A long bearish shadow emerged in the 19:15–19:30 ET time frame, indicating rejection of higher levels. Later, a potential bearish harami was observed from 12:15–12:45 ET as the price moved within a narrow range following a sharp drop. These formations suggest increased bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period (1.1932) and 50-period (1.2148) moving averages, indicating a bearish bias. The daily chart (not shown) would show the price well below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend. A possible short-term bounce may occur if the price retests the 50-period line at around 1.2148, but a break below the 200-period MA would signal a deeper bearish phase.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a strong positive divergence early in the day, peaking at 19:15 ET before reversing into a deep negative divergence as the price collapsed. RSI moved into overbought territory (83) at the peak before plunging into oversold territory (23) by 03:45 ET, indicating exhaustion in both directions. The current RSI reading at 41 suggests a consolidation phase may be in play, but with negative momentum still intact, bearish continuation is probable.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 19:15–19:30 ET time frame, with the price reaching the upper band at 1.3017. By 03:30 ET, volatility had sharply contracted, with the price closing inside the lower half of the bands at 1.2416. The current price of 1.1365 sits near the lower band, suggesting a potential bounce back toward the midline at 1.1884. However, a break below the lower band could trigger further downward momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early bullish wave, peaking at 95,958.6 at 03:30 ET, but dropped significantly during the sell-off. The total volume of 1,147,250.0 is above average for this pair, but the turnover declined as the price dropped, indicating reduced conviction. A divergence between rising volume and falling price could signal increased risk of further downside. The low volume in the final 12 hours suggests a lack of buying interest, supporting bearish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing from 1.0448 to 1.3017 shows the price has retraced to the 61.8% level at 1.1312. The 50% level at 1.1730 could offer a potential floor, but with the current price at 1.1365, it has already broken the 61.8% level. A retest of the 78.6% level at 1.0865 could be a target if the downtrend continues. Daily Fibonacci levels may offer further insight into potential long-term support and resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a short entry triggered by a close below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, accompanied by a bearish divergence in the RSI. A stop-loss could be placed just above the 1.2148 level, and a target could be set at the 1.0865 Fibonacci level. Given the strong bearish momentum and low volume in the final hours, this strategy appears well-suited to the current market environment. However, it would need to be tested across multiple cycles and adjusted for market noise and false signals.