Market Overview for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) on 2025-10-03

• FORMUSDC surged over 20% during the 24-hour window, reaching a peak of 1.3007 before consolidating.• A sharp reversal and consolidation occurred after a massive volume spike during the early morning.• Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight hours, with a high/low range exceeding 30%.• RSI and MACD showed overbought conditions at peak levels but are currently returning to neutral territory.• A key support level appears to be forming around 1.15–1.17, with a potential next target at 1.20 on a bullish breakout.

24-Hour Price Action and Volume Dynamics

FORMUSDC opened at 1.0448 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 1.3007 (reached at 2025-10-03 03:30 ET), dropped to a low of 1.1241, and closed at 1.1365 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. The total volume over the 24-hour period was 1,207,572.9, with a notional turnover of $1,325,689.30. This period saw a dramatic rise in volume during the 19:00–21:00 ET hours, indicating significant market interest and price volatility.

Structure and Key Levels

The price action revealed several key support and resistance levels, with 1.15–1.17 acting as a strong support cluster and 1.20–1.23 showing potential resistance. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible during the 19:30–20:00 ET period, signaling a potential short-term top. A doji formed near 1.25, indicating indecision and a potential reversal point. The 1.1365 closing price is near the lower end of the 24-hour range, suggesting bearish pressure.

Trend and Momentum

The 15-minute RSI moved into overbought territory during the peak at 1.3007, then dropped sharply into oversold territory, suggesting a volatile correction. MACD turned negative shortly after the peak, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 20-period EMA crossed below the 50-period EMA around 20:00 ET, signaling a short-term bearish bias. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) are still trending upward, indicating that the broader trend may remain intact.

Volatile Consolidation and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the peak hours (19:00–21:00 ET), indicating heightened volatility. The price then consolidated within a narrow range, suggesting a possible pause in momentum. The closing price at 1.1365 sits just above the lower band, indicating potential support. A breakout above 1.20 could see further expansion, while a retest of 1.15 may provide confirmation of a longer-term bottom.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on breakouts above key resistance levels, such as 1.20–1.23, triggered by a closing above a specific threshold (e.g., 1.21). A stop loss could be placed below the nearest support at 1.17, with a take profit at 1.25 or 1.30 for a short-term trade. The high volume seen during the 19:30–21:00 ET period suggests that such a strategy could have a high probability of success in a breakout scenario, especially if RSI and MACD confirm bullish momentum.