Market Overview for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) on 2025-09-23

• FORMUSDC opened at 1.2242, reached 1.2296, fell to 1.1113, and closed at 1.1195 after a 24-hour session.
• Price dropped over 9% from highs, with a bearish momentum confirmed by RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volatility spiked during the 03:45–05:30 ET window, coinciding with a sharp selloff and large-volume moves.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, reflecting heightened uncertainty and potential for further breakouts.
• Volume was concentrated in bearish swings, with the largest 15-minute turnover occurring around the 03:45 ET price collapse.

The 24-hour session for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) opened at 1.2242 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.1195 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 1.2296 and a low of 1.1113, with total volume of 368,704.8 and notional turnover of 404,200.0. The price action reflects a sharp bearish reversal, with bearish volume surges reinforcing the downward pressure.

Structure & Formations

The price action shows a distinct bearish trend, with a series of engulfing bearish candles from 19:00–04:30 ET. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 03:45–04:00 ET, confirming a shift in momentum. A long lower shadow candle at 05:45 ET and another at 06:00 ET suggest initial support at 1.1443–1.1459, with a subsequent breakdown confirming a deeper correction to 1.1113. Key support levels are likely at 1.1459 and 1.1113, while the nearest resistance appears at 1.1511 and 1.1558.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA both declined sharply during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA to form a death cross shortly after the 03:45 ET candle, reinforcing the downtrend. On the daily chart, the price closed below the 50DMA and 200DMA, indicating a medium-term bearish bias and potential for further declines if support levels are tested.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a sharp bearish divergence from 03:00–04:30 ET, with both the MACD line and signal line declining. RSI dropped from over 60 to below 30, signaling oversold conditions around 1.1113. However, the lack of a strong rebound indicates weak buying interest, suggesting the pair could test lower levels. A rebound above 1.1511 could trigger a short-term bounce, but a sustained move above 1.16 would be needed to rekindle bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, reaching a 15-minute width of ~0.0565 at 03:45 ET. The price closed near the lower band at 1.1113, a bearish signal. This volatility expansion suggests a high-probability scenario for a consolidation or reversal in the near term, although the current bearish setup remains intact unless a strong rebound forms.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply around the 03:45 ET candle, with a 15-minute volume of 19,611.6 and a turnover of ~$2,342.23 (assuming $1.19 as a proxy for average price). This aligns with a sharp drop from 1.1877 to 1.1841 in that interval. Turnover was also elevated in the 04:00–05:30 ET window, with the largest single candle turnover seen at 03:45–04:00 ET. The volume-to-price divergence is bearish, with no signs of a reversal or accumulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing high at 1.2296 and low at 1.1113, the 61.8% level sits at 1.1516, which coincided with a temporary bounce in the morning session. The 38.2% level at 1.1721 failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the move from 1.2296 to 1.1113 aligns with 1.1511, which was briefly tested but not held. This suggests the key near-term resistance is 1.1511, with 1.1721 a potential long-term target for bounces.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could target the 1.1511 Fibonacci level as a potential short-term bounce target. The MACD and RSI indicators suggest oversold conditions, but the volume profile remains bearish, making a long-biased trade speculative unless a strong reversal forms. A possible entry could be set just above 1.1511, with a stop-loss below 1.1443 and a target at 1.1721. This would capture potential short-term bounces in a volatile environment without assuming a reversal of the broader downtrend.