Market Overview for USDC/Czech Koruna (USDCCZK)

• Price dropped sharply during the night, finding temporary support near 20.80–20.84.
• Momentum indicators suggest moderate bearish pressure, with RSI showing signs of oversold conditions.
• Volume surged during the late-night and morning hours, coinciding with the sharp price decline.
• Bollinger Bands show increased volatility in the early morning session, with price testing the lower band.
• Fibonacci retracements indicate potential resistance near 20.93 and support at 20.77–20.80.

Opening Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05, the price of USDC/Czech Koruna (USDCCZK) closed at 20.77, down from the open of 20.97 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-04. The 24-hour range extended between 20.97 (high) and 20.75 (low). Total volume traded in the 24-hour period was 47,474.0 units, with notional turnover reaching 978,000.00 CZK.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick pattern reveals a bearish continuation trend with several small bodies and long lower shadows following the initial sell-off around 03:45–05:00 ET. A key support level formed near 20.80–20.84, where the price found temporary stability during the early morning. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 03:45 ET, as the price gapped down and closed near the session’s low. A potential resistance cluster appears at 20.93–20.97, which was tested multiple times earlier in the session before the break.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with the price consistently below both lines. The longer-term 50/100/200-period moving averages on the daily chart also show bearish alignment, reinforcing the downward bias. The price has remained below the 20-period MA for the majority of the day, with a sharp divergence from the MA line indicating strong selling pressure.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD shows bearish momentum with the histogram contracting and the signal line crossing below the MACD line, reinforcing the downward trend. The RSI is currently in overbought territory around the 70 level earlier in the day, but it has since fallen into the oversold zone (below 30), suggesting a potential near-term reversal could be imminent. However, the RSI remains below 50, indicating that the overall market sentiment remains bearish.

Bollinger Bands

The 15-minute Bollinger Bands have widened significantly in response to increased volatility during the early morning hours. The price tested the lower band several times, most notably at 04:00–05:00 ET, signaling a period of consolidation. During the late-night sell-off, the bands expanded to accommodate the sharp drop in price. Currently, the price is approaching the lower band once more, suggesting a potential bounce or continuation of the bearish move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the late-night to early morning hours, particularly around 03:45–05:00 ET, coinciding with the most significant price drop. This indicates strong selling pressure and confirms the bearish breakout. The notional turnover also increased during this period, reflecting higher participation and liquidity. However, the price did not close above the 20.93 level despite the volume increase, suggesting that the rally attempt was not strong enough to reverse the bearish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from the high of 20.97 to the low of 20.80, key retracement levels include 20.89 (61.8%), 20.91 (50%), and 20.93 (38.2%). The price bounced off the 20.80 level (0% of the retracement) and is currently testing the 61.8% level. The 20.80–20.77 zone represents the next potential support cluster, while 20.93–20.97 serves as the key resistance area.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and the overbought/oversold signals from the RSI, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short position triggered on a break below the 20.84 support level, with a stop-loss placed above 20.93. This would align with the bearish engulfing pattern observed and the divergence in the MACD. A target for this short trade could be set at the next retracement level of 20.77, offering a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1.5:1 based on the Fibonacci retracement levels and volume confirmation from the early morning session.