Market Overview for USDC/Czech Koruna (USDCCZK) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-09-20

• Price rose to 20.65 CZK, up from 20.62 at 12:00 ET-1, forming bullish continuation patterns.
• RSI reached overbought territory, suggesting potential pullback risk amid rising volume.
• Volatility expanded as prices oscillated within Bollinger Bands, signaling heightened interest.
• Turnover surged during late-night hours, confirming accumulation ahead of the morning break.
• Key resistance at 20.65 tested and held, with support lingering near 20.61–20.62.

The USDCCZK pair opened at 20.62 CZK on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET and rose to a high of 20.65 CZK, with a low of 20.58 CZK. It closed at 20.65 CZK on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET. The total volume for the 24-hour period was 59,583.0 CZK, with a total turnover of 1,221,119.7 CZK (based on average price and volume).

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bullish bias, with price trading above both and forming a series of higher lows and higher highs. The 50-period line at 20.61 and 20-period at 20.62 support the idea of a near-term bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 20.61, while the 200-period MA sits at 20.60, reinforcing a neutral-to-bullish setup.

The MACD histogram turned positive mid-session and remained above the signal line, suggesting growing momentum. RSI reached 65–68 during the late afternoon and evening hours, indicating overbought conditions. A pullback could follow if price fails to sustain above 20.65. Bollinger Bands widened in the morning, with price testing the upper band around 20.65, indicating increased volatility. Prices later retracted but stayed above the middle band, suggesting buyers are still active.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 20.58 to 20.65 swing show a 61.8% level at 20.62 and a 38.2% level at 20.63. The 20.65 high marks a potential key resistance zone, where a test may trigger consolidation or reversal. Volume surged around 20.65, confirming demand. However, a divergence between price and RSI implies caution, as momentum may wane if the level isn’t decisively cleared.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed strategy leverages the combination of RSI divergence and Fibonacci retracement levels to time entries. When price reaches a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8% or 38.2%) and RSI diverges—such as lower highs with higher RSI highs—it signals a potential reversal. Entries would be triggered upon a confirmed close above or below these levels, with stop-loss placed outside the Bollinger Band range or at a recent swing low. Given the recent RSI divergence near 20.65, a short-term pullback could offer a high-probability entry around 20.62, with a target at 20.60 and a stop above 20.65. This aligns with the current setup, as the pair appears poised to test key support, making it a viable backtesting scenario.