Market Overview for USDC/Czech Koruna (USDCCZK) – 2025-10-29

• Price traded within a narrow range today, moving between 20.86 and 20.95 CZK.
• A temporary breakout to 20.95 in the early afternoon was followed by consolidation.
• Volume spiked in the early morning and late afternoon, suggesting key price levels were tested.
• RSI remained neutral, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
• Price hovered near the upper Bollinger Band during the day’s peak volatility.

USDCCZK opened at 20.88 CZK at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-28 and closed at the same level at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-29. During the 24-hour window, the pair reached a high of 20.95 CZK and a low of 20.86 CZK. Total volume traded was 57,408.0, and the notional turnover amounted to approximately 1,197,408 CZK (based on average pricing and volume).

The price structure for USDCCZK over the past 24 hours showed a range-bound environment, with the 20.87–20.92 zone acting as a key consolidation area. A brief attempt to break above 20.95 was met with immediate selling pressure, resulting in a pullback to 20.93–20.94. A small bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 08:45 ET, signaling a possible short-term top. Meanwhile, a bullish harami pattern at 04:30 ET hinted at temporary buying interest, though it lacked follow-through. The overall candlestick formation suggests a lack of strong directional bias.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a mixed picture, with the 20- and 50-period SMAs fluctuating within the 20.87–20.92 range, reflecting the sideways bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is currently above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, indicating a potential short-term bullish bias, though it has yet to show strong conviction in the 15-minute time frame.

The RSI for USDCCZK remained in the neutral range (between 45 and 55), suggesting the market lacked significant momentum. A brief spike to 60 in the morning was quickly followed by a reversion back to midline, reinforcing the indecision. The MACD showed a weak positive divergence early in the session, but it faded as the day progressed, with both the line and signal line returning to near zero. This suggests that momentum was not strong enough to push the price decisively in either direction.

Bollinger Bands illustrated a moderate volatility environment, with the price staying within one standard deviation most of the day. A brief contraction in volatility was observed overnight, followed by a minor expansion in the early morning. The price touched the upper band during the breakout to 20.95 and again in the late morning, suggesting some short-term overbought conditions, but failed to maintain a breakout. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 20.86 to 20.95 swing indicated key levels at 20.89 (38.2%) and 20.92 (61.8%), which were indeed tested multiple times during the day.

The volume profile revealed two key spikes: one in the early morning (around 04:30–06:00 ET) and another in the late afternoon (around 14:00–16:00 ET). The first was associated with the consolidation near 20.92, while the second coincided with a test of the lower boundary. Notional turnover aligned with volume patterns but showed no clear divergence from price action. These spikes suggest that key levels were probed, but there was no confirmation of a breakout.

Over the next 24 hours, USDCCZK may continue consolidating within the 20.86–20.95 range, with a potential bias toward testing the 20.89–20.92 zone again. A sustained move above 20.94 could confirm a short-term bullish shift, but failure to hold that level could trigger a retest of 20.86. Traders should remain cautious of thin liquidity, as evidenced by the lack of follow-through in key price actions.

Backtest Hypothesis

A proposed backtesting strategy involves identifying and acting on Bullish Engulfing candlestick patterns in the USD/CZK pair. These patterns are typically seen as reversal signals in bearish or downtrend conditions. The strategy would enter a long position at the close of the engulfing candle, with a 3-day holding period, and target a profit based on the size of the engulfing pattern. However, in order to execute the backtest accurately, the correct ticker symbol for the USD/CZK pair must be identified from the data source. Symbols such as USDCZK, CZKUSD, or CZK=X may differ across platforms, and using the wrong one could lead to misleading results. Once the correct identifier is confirmed, a detailed performance report including win rates, average returns, and risk-adjusted metrics can be generated for the period from 2022-01-01 to the current date.