Market Overview for USDC/Czech Koruna (USDCCZK) as of 2025-10-10

• Price opened at 20.98 and traded between 20.89 and 21.02, closing near 20.90.
• Momentum weakened after midday with RSI showing oversold conditions.
• Volatility spiked in the morning before contracting, with volume peaking at 9397 USDC.
• Bollinger Band contraction observed in late hours, hinting at potential breakout.
• Price found support at 20.90 and may test resistance at 21.02 in the near term.

USDCCZK opened at 20.98 on October 9 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 21.02 before closing at 20.90 on October 10 at the same time. The pair traded between 20.89 and 21.02, with a 24-hour volume of 237,249.5 USDC and a notional turnover of approximately CZK 4,981,264. Price appears to have found a short-term floor near 20.90, with bearish bias gaining strength after early volatility.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were observed at 20.90 and 20.94, with 20.97 providing a potential short-term resistance. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:00 ET on October 9, confirming a shift in momentum to the downside. A doji at 20.99 around 04:45 ET suggests indecision, followed by a continuation of the downward trend. The price has remained within a descending channel since the morning high at 21.02.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned, with price below both. For daily timeframes, the 50-period MA is at 20.94, the 100-period at 20.95, and the 200-period at 20.97, indicating short-term bearish bias but a potential near-term equilibrium around 20.94–20.96.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bearish crossover around 19:00 ET, confirming the bearish engulfing candle. The RSI has moved into oversold territory, dipping below 30 after midday, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, bearish momentum remains dominant unless a strong reversal occurs near 20.90.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the morning and contracted sharply after 00:00 ET, with price hovering near the lower band for most of the session. The contraction suggests a potential breakout or breakdown scenario in the near term, with 20.90–20.92 as key levels to watch.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply around 19:00 ET (9397 USDC) during a key bearish move, confirming the downward pressure. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with divergence emerging in the last 6 hours as volume waned but price continued lower. This suggests weaker conviction in the bearish trend as the session closed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the 21.02–20.89 swing show key retracement levels at 20.97 (38.2%), 20.94 (50%), and 20.91 (61.8%). Price has tested 20.94 and may re-test 20.91 for further confirmation of bearish momentum. The 61.8% level appears to be the next probable target in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price behavior, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short-biased approach triggered by a break below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and RSI below 30. A stop-loss could be placed above the 20.97 resistance level. The target could be the 20.91–20.90 Fibonacci level, offering a 0.93–1.03 risk-to-reward ratio. This setup aligns with the observed bearish momentum and key technical divergences, making it a suitable candidate for further validation and execution.