Market Overview for USDC/Czech Koruna (USDCCZK) – 2025-09-23

• Price drifted lower through the day, closing near the 24-hour low after a bearish morning break.
• Volume and turnover expanded in the afternoon, particularly between 19:30–22:30 ET, signaling key activity.
• RSI and MACD signaled moderate bearish momentum, with price hovering near key support levels.
• Volatility expanded during the early hours, with Bollinger Bands widening ahead of the close.
• A strong rejection at 20.62–20.64 suggests resistance remains intact ahead of potential countertrend bounces.

The USDCCZK pair opened at 20.62 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and drifted lower throughout the 24-hour period, closing at 20.61 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 20.65 and a low of 20.54. Total volume was 69,711.0, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 1,434,674.7 CZK. Price action shows a bearish consolidation, with key resistance levels forming between 20.62 and 20.65 and support near 20.57–20.58.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish consolidation pattern after the morning high near 20.65, with a key rejection seen near 20.62–20.64. A bearish engulfing pattern developed in the early afternoon before a period of sideways consolidation. Notable support was tested multiple times at 20.57–20.58, with price bouncing from this level but failing to retest the morning high. A doji formed around 03:45 ET, signaling indecision in a key support zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, forming a bearish crossover and confirming a downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period line is slightly above the 100- and 200-period averages, suggesting a weakening bull case and reinforcing the bearish bias. Price has spent most of the 24 hours below these key averages, indicating ongoing bearish control.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line throughout the day, confirming bearish momentum, with the histogram showing increasing negative divergence after 19:00 ET. RSI drifted into oversold territory in the late hours before stabilizing, with a low of 26.7 and a high of 43.6. This suggests that while momentum is bearish, a countertrend bounce could be in the cards if support holds.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the afternoon hours, with Bollinger Bands widening and price dipping below the lower band on several occasions. This expansion is often a precursor to a breakout or reversal, and the recent price behavior near the lower band may indicate oversold conditions. The upper band reached 20.65 in the early morning, while the lower band hovered near 20.55 by the close.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply between 19:30–22:30 ET, aligning with a strong bearish move from 20.62 to 20.58. This increase in volume suggests strong seller participation during that period. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, confirming the price movement. However, volume dropped off in the early hours as price stabilized, suggesting a possible exhaustion of bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 20.65 to 20.54, the 61.8% retracement level sits near 20.61, where price has found some resistance ahead of the close. On the daily chart, the 38.2% level is at 20.62 and has shown strong rejection. A break below 20.57 could trigger a deeper retracement to 20.54, where the 61.8% level is located.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy provided focuses on short-term countertrend bounces using key support levels and Fibonacci retracements as entry triggers. The idea is to enter long positions when price stabilizes near major support levels and RSI enters oversold territory. Given the recent price action, a potential entry might be near 20.57–20.58, where the RSI has previously bounced and Fibonacci levels converge. The bearish momentum observed in the MACD and the volume profile supports the strategy’s viability, though traders should remain cautious as a break below 20.54 could invalidate the pattern.