Market Overview for Four/USDC on 2025-11-05

Summary
• Four/USDC opened at $0.4209 and closed at $0.4652, reaching a high of $0.4903 and a low of $0.4102.
• Momentum shifted to bullish in late trading, with a sharp rally from $0.4652 to $0.4903 in the final 15 minutes.
• Total volume was 324,016.3 and turnover hit $131,621.7, showing strong late-day participation.

The 24-hour period for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) began at $0.4209 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at $0.4652 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05, reaching a peak of $0.4903 and a trough of $0.4102. Total volume for the period was 324,016.3, with a notional turnover of $131,621.7. The price action suggests a strong bullish reversal in the final hours, driven by heavy buying in the last 45 minutes.

Structure & Formations

The chart revealed a key support level at $0.4102, where a sharp rebound occurred during the overnight session. A bullish engulfing pattern formed on the $0.4247 to $0.4310 candle at 23:45 ET, confirming the reversal in sentiment. A doji at $0.4303 (03:15 ET) signaled indecision, but the follow-through buying after that point confirmed strength.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs were both trending upwards during the final 3 hours, reinforcing the bullish breakout. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period and 100-period SMAs are in close proximity near the $0.4350 level, suggesting a potential confluence zone for near-term consolidation or continuation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line at 05:30 ET and remained in positive territory for most of the session, reinforcing the upward momentum. RSI surged into overbought territory (above 70) after 15:30 ET, indicating strong buying pressure. The RSI divergence between early bears and late bulls was significant and may have acted as a bullish catalyst.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the final hour, with the Bollinger Bands stretching from $0.4712 to $0.4903. Price closed near the upper band at $0.4903, suggesting a strong bullish move. This expansion may indicate the beginning of a new upward trend, though a pullback into the mid-band could present a re-entry opportunity.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 144,784.5 during the 15:30–16:00 ET session, corresponding to a $0.4657 close. This volume surge coincided with a breakout to $0.4903, confirming the move. Turnover also increased sharply, aligning with the price breakout and showing that the move was well-backed by market depth and liquidity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the swing from $0.4102 to $0.4903, the 61.8% level is at $0.4585, suggesting a possible short-term target for consolidation. The 38.2% level is at $0.4410, where a shallow pullback could find immediate support. If the move extends beyond the high, the next key Fibonacci level is at $0.5057 (127.2% extension), which would indicate a strong continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions when RSI exceeds 80 on a daily close (cross-up trigger), with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent bullish swing as a target. Stop-loss and trailing stops would add critical risk management, while maximum holding days (e.g., 7) could prevent stale positions. This would need historical RSI and price data for Four/USDC from 2022-01-01 onward to test robustness.