Market Overview for Four/USDC on 2025-10-05

• Four/USDC traded in a 24-hour range of 1.02–1.1377, closing near 1.1191 after a deep pullback from a morning high.
• A sharp sell-off in the early hours was accompanied by a volume spike, suggesting strong bear pressure.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence in the morning but showed tentative signs of stabilizing in the afternoon.
• Bollinger Bands saw a wide expansion in the early morning, followed by a period of contraction in the late afternoon.
• Volume and turnover remained elevated throughout the session, confirming the strength of price swings.

Opening Narratives

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, Four/USDC opened at 1.1112 and traded as high as 1.1377 before dropping to a 24-hour low of 1.02. The pair closed at 1.1191 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. Total volume over the 24-hour window amounted to 363,496.0, with a notional turnover of $402,017.4 (assuming $FORMUSDC = 1.1191 at close). The price action showed a sharp reversal after a volatile morning, signaling a bearish exhaustion pattern.

Structure & Formations

The morning session featured a significant bearish divergence, with a long red candle closing at the low of 1.02 after a sharp drop from 1.1377. This candle is consistent with a bearish exhaustion pattern. In the afternoon, the price found support near 1.1127 and formed a small bullish engulfing pattern as it moved higher. Key resistances appear at 1.1303 and 1.1377, with immediate support at 1.1127 and a critical psychological level at 1.1000.

Technical Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both declined sharply in the early morning, confirming the downward momentum. The 50-period line is currently flattening, indicating a potential short-term bottoming process. The MACD line turned from bearish to mildly bullish in the afternoon, with a narrowing histogram suggesting a slowdown in bearish momentum. The RSI reached an oversold reading of 28 after the morning low and rebounded into the neutral zone, suggesting a possible reentry point for buyers.

Bollinger Bands saw an early morning expansion as the pair broke down through the lower band, a signal of high volatility. However, the price spent much of the afternoon consolidating inside the bands, indicating a temporary pause in directional movement. The volatility contraction in the late afternoon suggests a potential reversal or a continuation depending on the next candle formation.

Volume & Turnover Analysis

The highest volume spike occurred at 03:30 ET, coinciding with the 1.02 low and a drop of over 11% from the 1.1377 high. This suggests strong bear activity. The volume then declined sharply in the afternoon and remained in a narrow range after 06:00 ET, indicating a consolidation phase. Notional turnover spiked in line with volume, confirming the strength of the early bear move. However, no divergence was observed between price and turnover after 12:00 ET, suggesting that the move may have been genuine and not a false breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the morning move from 1.1377 to 1.02, the 38.2% level is at 1.084 and the 61.8% level at 1.110. The price found a temporary floor near 1.1127, just above the 61.8% level, which may now serve as support or a reentry point for buyers. If the price breaks below 1.1127, the next key level to watch is 1.1000, with the psychological 1.0500 level remaining a long-term concern.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined in the input suggests entering long positions at the close of a bullish engulfing candle after a defined pullback from a 50-period moving average. Based on today’s data, the afternoon formation around 18:30 ET (1.0795 to 1.0818) could serve as a test case, with the 50-period MA in a slight downtrend and the candle forming a bullish reversal. A backtest would likely examine entry points after the 50 MA has flattened and the RSI shows signs of bottoming. This setup aligns with the strategy's criteria and could provide a viable model for further analysis using historical data.