Market Overview for Four/USD Coin (FORMUSDC): Volatile 24-Hour Swing with Mixed Technical Signals

• FORMUSDC opened at $3.7005, surged to a 24-h high of $3.8071, and closed at $3.7096 amid volatile price swings.
• Key support levels at $3.6657–$3.6553 held multiple times, while resistance at $3.7244–$3.7877 saw repeated retests.
• MACD signaled mixed momentum with bullish and bearish crossovers, while RSI suggested overbought conditions at 75+ before sharp corrections.
• Volume spiked to $3,608.8 during a sharp rally to $3.7398, but diverged from price during a pullback, hinting at potential exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the morning surge, then narrowed through the afternoon, signaling consolidation ahead of a potential breakout.

Opening Summary and 24-Hour Price Action

Four/USD Coin (FORMUSDC) opened at $3.7005 on 2025-09-05 12:00 ET, climbed to a 24-hour high of $3.8071, and closed at $3.7096 as of 2025-09-06 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 16,153.4, with a notional turnover of approximately $57,950.35. The price action reflected a mix of bullish and bearish momentum, with several key support and resistance levels tested and retested.

Structure & Formations

A notable breakout pattern occurred between 09:45 and 10:00 ET, where the price surged from $3.6346 to $3.7196 on high volume. This was followed by a bearish engulfing pattern during the 10:00–10:15 ET interval as the price pulled back sharply to $3.6837. A key support level at $3.6657–$3.6553 held multiple times, including during a sharp bearish move overnight. A doji formed at $3.6741 at 06:15 ET, signaling potential indecision in the market.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average rose to $3.7021, slightly above the 50-period at $3.6901, indicating a potential bullish bias in the short term. On a daily basis, the 50-period MA sat at $3.7019, just above the 200-period at $3.6981, reflecting a mixed trend. The MACD crossed above zero at 09:45 ET, signaling a bullish crossover, but closed below zero by the 16:00 ET close, indicating waning momentum. The RSI hit overbought territory (75+) twice during the morning and afternoon surges, suggesting possible corrections.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the morning surge, reaching a range of $3.6346–$3.7398. This expansion indicated increased volatility and potential breakout conditions. By afternoon, the bands had contracted, with the price trading within a tighter range of $3.6207–$3.6807. This narrowing suggests a period of consolidation ahead of the next directional move. The price closed near the upper band at $3.7096, indicating bullish pressure, but failed to break above the 24-hour high of $3.8071.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked to a high of 3,608.8 at 09:45 ET, coinciding with a sharp move to $3.7396. However, this was followed by a large volume of 1,741.2 at 15:00 ET, during which the price surged to $3.8071. Despite these highs, the volume did not confirm the price strength as the price later pulled back. Turnover also peaked during these periods but declined in the afternoon, suggesting exhaustion. A divergence between volume and price action during the afternoon pullback indicates caution for near-term buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the morning move from $3.6346 to $3.7398, the 61.8% level was at $3.6947, which the price held briefly before retreating. On the larger 24-hour move from $3.6207 to $3.8071, the 61.8% retracement level is at $3.6886, which may act as a key support in the next 24 hours. The 38.2% level at $3.7330 is currently acting as a resistance zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on breakout conditions identified through Bollinger Bands and moving average crossovers. A long entry at 09:45 ET could have been triggered by the price crossing the upper Bollinger Band with the 20-period MA above the 50-period MA. A stop-loss would be placed below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3.6947. The strategy would aim to capture the 10–15% upward move seen during the 09:45–10:00 ET period, with exits at key resistance levels such as $3.7244 and $3.7877. This approach relies on a strong volume confirmation and RSI not entering overbought territory before the expected target.